基于企业生命周期的剩余收益模型改进研究  

Research on Improvement of Residual Income Model Based on Enterprise Life Cycle

作　　者：王立夏 唐祎兰 唐潮 WANG Lixia;TANG Yilan;TANG Chao(School of Business,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Business School,Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院商学院,上海201306 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100049 [3]香港中文大学商学院,中国香港999077

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2023年第9期222-227,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

摘　　要：文章在一般剩余收益模型基础上,根据企业生命周期理论,即企业在生命周期的不同阶段具有不同的收益水平,当企业处于成长期时,收益水平持续上升;当企业达到成熟期时,收益水平则相对稳定,并具体表现为在行业平均收益范围内波动;当企业进入衰退期时,收益水平将持续下降。本文从理论上构建基于企业生命周期的剩余收益模型(Life Cycle Residual Income Model,LCRIM),并就所构建的LCRIM进行数值检验。研究结果表明新构建的LCRIM模型具有较好的理论和应用价值,可以作为一种有效的企业权益价值估值模型。As an important enterprise valuation tool,the residual model has been widely recognized by the financial theoretical and practice circles.The classic Ohlson series residual model models are generally used in the both theoretical and practical circle of finance and financial accounting.On this basis,many follow-up researchers conduct extended research on the Ohlson series residual income model from various perspectives.However,current research on the residual income model is based on the assumption of continuous operation of the enterprise and the perpetual profit,which makes the research face the obstacle of the continuous operation assumption;And these studies mean that the profit level of the enterprise is constant or the abnormal return is constant.These assumptions are contrary to the enterprise life cycle theory.Based on the general residual income model and the theory of enterprise life cycle,this article states that enterprise has different levels of income at different stages of their life cycle.When the enterprise is in the growth stage,the level of income continues to rise;When a company reaches its maturity stage,its income level is relatively stable,which is manifested as fluctuating within the industry average income range;When a company enters a recession stage,its income level will continue to decline.We construct a Life Cycle Residual Income Model(LCRIM)in theory,which is more in line with the company’s actual situation.Furthermore,numerical tests are conducted on the constructed LCRIM to verify the effectiveness of the model.On the basis of the above expanded research on the general residual income model,this paper also proposes a new assumption about the return on equity during the maturity period of the enterprise and expands the research on the time point for maximizing the company’s value.According to the initial design of the LCRIM model,it is assumed that the net profit of the enterprise remains unchanged in the mature stage,but as the net asset increases gradually,the return on equity

关 键 词：企业生命周期 剩余收益模型 LCRIM模型 权益估值 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] F230.9F273.2