浙江省环境质量演变趋势分析及预测研究  

Analysis and Forecast on the Evolution Trend of Environmental Quality in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：沈俏会 俞洁 戴昕 胡晔 SHEN Qiaohui;YU Jie;DAI Xin;HU Ye Zhejiang(Key Laboratory of Eco-Environmental Big Data,Zhejiang Eco-Environmental Monitoring Center,Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省生态环境监测中心,浙江省生态环境大数据重点实验室,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《中国环境监测》2023年第5期176-182,共7页Environmental Monitoring in China

摘　　要：选择2011—2020年浙江省地表水、空气和酸雨监测数据,结合社会经济发展统计数据,从社会经济与环境质量间协调性角度探讨“十二五”及“十三五”浙江省环境质量演变趋势,并在此基础上对“十四五”期间环境质量进行科学合理的预测。分析结果表明,2011—2020年环境质量不断向良好状态发展,通过动态耦合模型得到的耦合度由2011年的34.6°上升到2020年的55.4°,社会经济发展与环境质量协调发展水平呈现上升态势。采用灰色预测法和时间序列模型对环境质量进行预测,模拟结果显示,预计到2025年地表水优良率将达到92%,满足功能要求断面比例达到95%,设区城市空气质量优良天数比例达到92%,酸雨率平均为40%。正确认识社会经济发展与环境质量变化之间的耦合规律,并对环境质量进行合理预测,能够为促进社会经济与生态环境的协调发展提供理论依据,为深入打好污染防治攻坚战提供有力支撑。Selecting the monitoring data of surface water,air and acid rain in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2020,combined with the statistical data of socioeconomic development,the evolution trend of environmental quality was discussed according to the coupling coordination between social economy and environmental quality.Furthermore,scientific and reasonable predictions of environmental quality during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period were made.The results showed that the environmental quality had achieved sustainable improvement.The coupling degree obtained by the dynamic coupling model had increased from 34.6°in 2011 to 55.4°in 2020.The coordinated level of social economy and environmental quality improved continually.The grey forecasting method and the time series model were used to forecast the environmental quality.The results showed the percent of surface water sections meeting GradeⅠ-Ⅲ,attainment days on air quality,and acid rain frequency would reach 92%,95%and 40%,respectively.Correctly analysis the coordinated level of social economy and environment and forecast on the evolution trend of environmental quality would provide the theoretical basis for promoting the coordinated development of social economy and environment,and provide strong support for deepening the fight against pollution.

关 键 词：环境质量综合分析 耦合协调度 演变趋势 环境质量预测 

分 类 号：X517[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X822