基于气候统计分析法的福建省主汛期降水时空演变研究  

Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Precipitation During Main Flood Season in Fujian Province Based on Climate Statistical Analysis

作　　者：吴政秋 庞波 徐翃 陈钰 Wu Zheng-qiu(Fujian Provincial Climate Center,Fuzhou,Fujian 350028)

机构地区：[1]福建省气候中心,福建福州350028 [2]福建省气象灾害防御技术中心,福建福州350028 [3]福州软件职业技术学院,福建福州350213

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第8期172-174,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：福建省气象局青年科技专项(2021Q08)。

摘　　要：选取福建省1990—2020年共30年主汛期(4—9月)逐小时站点降水资料,采用经验正交函数分解法、九点平滑法、非参数统计检验法、M-K检验、小波分析法等气候统计方法,对福建省主汛期降水气候时空演变及其周期变化特征展开研究。应用气候统计分析方法研究福建省近30年主汛期降水气候的时空演变和周期性,反映出明显的气候不均匀性和周期性,可为气象业务部门降水预报预测提供有力依据,实现预报在前、决策在前、防范在前的目标。Based on hourly precipitation data from stations during the main flood season(April September) of Fujian Province from 1990 to 2020,climate statistical methods such as empirical orthogonal function decomposition,9-point smoothing,nonparametric statistical testing,M-K testing,and wavelet analysis were used to study the spatiotemporal evolution and periodic change characteristics of precipitation during the main flood season in Fujian Province.Using climate statistical analysis methods to study the spatiotemporal evolution and periodicity of precipitation during the main flood season in Fujian Province in the past 30 years reflects significant climate heterogeneity and periodicity.The application of this statistical method can provide a strong basis for precipitation forecasting and prediction in meteorological operational departments,achieving the goal of forecasting first,decision-making first,and prevention first.

关 键 词：主汛期降水 时空演变 EOF分析法 M-K检验法 小波分析 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]