Disastrous Persistent Extreme Rainfall Events of the 2022 Pre-Flood Season in South China:Causes and Subseasonal Predictions  

作　　者：Jiehong XIE Pang-Chi HSU Yamin HU Qiaomei LIN Mengxi YE 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210000 [2]Jieyang Meteorological Bureau,China Meteorological Administration,Jieyang 522000 [3]Guangdong Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510000

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2023年第4期469-485,共17页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42225502);Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004);National Basic Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606203);Special Fund of China Meteorological Administration for Innovation and Development (CXFZ2021J026);Special Fund for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration (CMAYBY2020-094)。

摘　　要：Two persistent extreme rainfall events(PEREs) with record-breaking amounts of rainfall and long duration caused disastrous impact during the 2022 pre-flood season in South China. Atmospheric intraseasonal variability played a key role in triggering and maintaining both PEREs, but its major impact on each event was associated with different modes. For the first PERE(10-15 May;PERE1), the tropical and extratropical quasi-biweekly oscillations jointly contributed to the extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast, the long duration(6-21 June) of the heavy rainfall during the second PERE(PERE2) was closely related to prolonged convection and moisture transport anomalies induced mainly by the tropical 30-90-day variability. Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions by the model of the ECMWF showed limited skill in relation to the rainfall intensity of PERE1 and PERE2 beyond 1–2 weeks. Further assessment suggested that the fidelity of the PERE predictions was linked to model skill in predicting the phase evolution and intensity of tropical and extratropical intraseasonal variabilities. Thus, efficient monitoring and accurate prediction of the various modes of atmospheric intraseasonal variability are fundamental to reducing the hazard associated with PEREs in South China.

关 键 词：persistent extreme rainfall event intraseasonal oscillation South China subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]