海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水东淀蓄滞洪区洪水演进模拟与预报  

Simulation and forecasting of flood evolution in Dongdian storage-detention area during Haihe"23·7"basin-wide extreme flood

作　　者：吴滨滨[1,2] 于汪洋 马奉泉 喻海军 穆杰[1,2] 柴福鑫 李敏[1,2] 宋文龙 WU Binbin;YU Wangyang;MA Fengquan;YU Haijun;MU Jie;CHAI Fuxin;LI Min;SONG Wenlong(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038;College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Captial Normal University,Beijing 100048;Key Laboratory of Water Safety for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京100038 [3]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [4]水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第10期37-42,57,共7页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3010704);国家自然科学基金(52009147)。

摘　　要：为全面支撑海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水中东淀蓄滞洪区的运用决策及预报预警,基于中国水利水电科学研究院自主研发的高性能洪水分析软件IFMS/Urban,构建了蓄滞洪区一维、二维耦合水动力学模型,利用实时监测和预报的水情数据,持续开展了东淀蓄滞洪区洪水演进模拟和滚动预报工作。实践证明,本次构建的洪水演进模型模拟预报精度较高,模拟结果跟遥感监测淹没范围和前方现场实时反馈信息吻合较好,可反映蓄滞洪区洪水演进实际过程,并能准确预测未来动态变化,及时为下游关键区域提供洪水预警,有效支撑了本次洪水防御工作。To fully support the decision-making and forecasting efforts of Dongdian storage-detention area operation during the"23·7"extreme flood in the Haihe River Basin,a 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic model was constructed based on the highperformance flood analysis software IFMS/Urban developed independently by China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research.This model utilized real-time monitoring and water regime forecasting data to continuously simulate and provide rolling predictions of flood evolution in Dongdian storage-detention area.It has been proven through practical applications that the flood evolution model constructed in this paper has high accuracy in simulation and prediction,with simulation results closely matching the flooded area detected by remote sensing and the real-time feedback from the front line.This model can thus reflect the actual flood evolution process in the storage-detention area,accurately predict future dynamic changes,and provide timely flood warnings for the key downstream areas,effectively supporting the flood prevention work.

关 键 词：海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水 东淀蓄滞洪区 水动力学模型 洪水模拟 滚动预报 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV873