黄河内蒙古河段1959—2020年凌汛期冷空气特征变化分析  

Analysis of changes in cold air characteristics during the ice flood season of the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River from 1959 to 2020

作　　者：谢莉[1] 韩作强 XIE Li;HAN Zuoqiang(Hydrological Bureau Information Center of the Yellow River Water Resources Commission,Zhengzhou 450004)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会水文局信息中心,郑州450004

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第10期63-67,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：基于内蒙古自治区包头气象站1959—2020年凌汛期逐日平均气温、日最低气温观测数据,通过统计分析、线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,研究1959—2020年黄河内蒙古河段凌汛期气温变化及拉尼娜事件影响该区域的不同强度冷空气特征变化。结果表明:1959—2020年,影响内蒙古河段的冷空气多年平均频次为36.5次,弱冷空气频次占冷空气总频次的59.4%,且弱冷空气频次与包头气象站凌汛期气温呈显著正相关,通过α=0.05显著性检验,强冷空气频次与包头气象站凌汛期气温呈负相关关系。受拉尼娜事件影响的年份,凌汛期气温整体以偏低为主。其中拉尼娜事件发展年,11—12月冷空气频次较常年同期整体偏少,强冷空气分别偏少44%和29%,1—2月强冷空气及寒潮的频次较常年同期整体偏多,尤其2月强冷空气及寒潮的频次较常年同期分别偏多16%和13%;拉尼娜事件持续年,1月强冷空气及寒潮频次较常年同期分别偏多19%和82%;拉尼娜事件衰减年,11月中等强度及弱冷空气频次较常年偏多,强冷空气及寒潮频次较常年同期分别偏少33%和52%。Based on the daily average temperature and daily minimum temperature observation data of Baotou Meteorological Station during the ice flood season from 1959 to 2020,the temperature change and cold air characteristics of different intensities at the Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River during the ice flood season and La Nina event were studied by statistical analysis,linear trend estimation and Mann-Kendall test.The results show that the annual average frequency of cold air affecting the Inner Mongolia reach from 1959 to 2020 is 36.5 times.The frequency of weak cold air accounted for 59.1%of the total frequency of cold air,and there was a significant positive correlation between the frequency of weak cold air and the temperature of Baotou station during the ice flood season(α=0.05).There is no significant negative correlation between the frequency of strong cold air and the temperature of Baotou station during the ice flood season.In the years affected by La Nina events,the temperature in ice flood season is mainly low.During the year of La Nina developing,the cold air of Baotou station was less in general from November to December,especially the strong cold air,which was less by 44%and 29%,respectively.From January to February,the frequency of strong cold air and cold wave is generally higher with especially in February being 16%and 13%higher,respectively.During the year of La Nina sustaining,the frequency of strong cold air and cold wave in January is 19%and 82%more than that of the multi-year average respectively.During the year of La Nina declining,the frequency of moderate and weak cold air in November is more than that of the normal year,while the frequency of strong cold air and cold wave is less by 33%and 52%respectively than that of the normal year.

关 键 词：凌汛期 冷空气 趋势变化 拉尼娜 

分 类 号：P425.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]