思想实验复杂性及其多时间尺度出路——兼论费米悖论  

Complexity of Thought Experiments and the Way Out by Multiple Time Scales:A Discussion of Fermi's Paradox

作　　者：孙圣 SUN Sheng(School of Philosophy,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学哲学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2023年第4期23-28,34,共7页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“科学思想实验的划界问题研究”(22YJC720015)。

摘　　要：费米悖论源于思想实验,指出了星际文明数量的理性预测与经验观测间的冲突。实际上,可用于科学思想实验可靠性的判定条件,通常有技术细节、概念基础与逻辑结构等三种进路。与之不同的是,更广泛类型的思想实验,尤其在工程与社会发展领域,因涉及复杂性问题而使这些特征不再明显。研究发现,需要选择在适合的自变量上做反事实假设,并使用重整化方法与多时间尺度分析。本文揭示了范式、技术与资源的互相关,讨论了费米悖论的思想实验与库恩的范式革命之间的不相容,这为探究思维科学与其他科学的关系给出了有效尝试,有利于推进工程与社会发展并实现自我纠错。Fermi's Paradox comes from his thought experiments,which indicates the contradiction between rational forecast and empirical observation on quantity of alien civilizations.In fact,three approaches could be conditions of reliability of scientific thought experiments,that is,technical particulars,conceptual foundations and logical structures.In contrast,the characteristics are no longer clear due to complexity involved in thought experiments of other kinds,especially on engineering and social development.The study shows that some methods are able to solve these problems,namely,counterfactual conditionals on appropriate independent variables,renormalization method and multiple time scales analysis.The paper reveals that paradigm,technology and resources are cross-correlated which essentially brings thought experiments of Fermi's Paradox into conflict with Kuhn's Paradigm Revolution.This is an effective attempt to explore the probability of establishing a connection between noetic science and other sciences,which contributes to the engineering and social development as well as the self-corrections of that.

关 键 词：思想实验的可靠性 复杂系统科学 重整化方法 多时间尺度分析 工程与社会发展 

分 类 号：N94-02[自然科学总论—系统科学] B80-05[哲学宗教—思维科学]