中国数字经济发展水平测度及动态演变分析  

The Measurement and Analysis of the Development of China's Digital Economy and Dynamic Evolution

作　　者：汤渌洋 鲁邦克 邢茂源 孟祥兰[2] TANG Lu-yang;LU Bang-ke;XING Mao-yuan;MENG Xiang-lan(School of Business,Administration Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics,Kunming 650000,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院,湖北武汉430073 [3]云南省统计局,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2023年第5期869-882,共14页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学重大规划课题(20GZZB03);中央高校基础科研业务费专项基金资助项目(31512111210)。

摘　　要：本文基于对我国数字经济发展内涵的深刻理解,从数字基础设施、数字创新能力、数字产业规模和数字技术应用四个维度构建了中国数字经济发展水平评价指标体系,并对中国30个省市区(不含西藏和港澳台地区)数字经济发展水平进行测度。接着采用Dagum基尼系数及其子群分解方法和核密度估计方法对中国数字经济发展水平的地区差异进行分析,采用传统Markov链方法及空间Markov链方法进一步分析动态演变过程。研究结果发现:目前,中国数字经济发展水平较低,区域差异较大,两极分化和发展不协调的现象突出,呈现“东高、中西低”的分布格局,动态演变受相邻区域空间滞后项类型的影响。Based on a deep understanding of the connotation of China digital economy development,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the development level of China's digital economy from the four dimensions of digital infrastructure,digital innovation capabilities,digital industry scale,and digital technology applications.Then,the paper measure the development level of digital economy about 30 provinces in China(Excluding Tibet and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan),use the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation to analyze the regional difference,the traditional Markov chain and the spatial Markov chain are used to further analyze the dynamic evolution process.The results show:Now,China's digital economy is at a low level of development,with large regional differences,and the phenomenon of polarization and uncoordinated development is prominent,which form the distribution pattern of the"east strong,middle and west weak",and dynamic evolution is affected by the types of spatial lags in adjacent regions.

关 键 词：数字经济 综合评价 区域差异 动态演变 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]