1990-2019年江苏省乙型肝炎病毒感染相关肝癌发病和死亡趋势分析  

Incidence and mortality trends of hepatitis B virus infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：刘德 陈培培[1] 娄培安[1] 乔程[1] 李婷[1] 张盼[1] 江宜雪 董宗美 朱璇 俞浩[2] LIU De;CHEN Peipei;LOU Peian;QIAO Cheng;LI Ting;ZHANG Pan;JIANG Yixue;DONG Zongmei;ZHU Xuan;YU Hao(Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases,Xuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xuzhou 221000,China;Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases,Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]徐州市疾病预防控制中心慢病科,徐州221000 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心慢病所,南京210009

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第10期1221-1227,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：江苏省卫生计生委医学科研课题(H2017018)。

摘　　要：目的分析全球健康数据交换(Global Health Data Exchange,GHDx)数据库中1990—2019年江苏省乙型肝炎病毒(hepatitis B virus,HBV)感染相关肝癌发病和死亡的现状及时间变化趋势。方法收集GHDx数据库中1990—2019年江苏省HBV感染相关肝癌发病和死亡数据,使用Joinpoint软件分析年龄标化发病率或死亡率的时间变化趋势。使用年龄-时期-队列模型,评估年龄、时期、队列因素对年龄标化发病率或死亡率变化的影响。结果1990—2019年江苏省HBV感染相关肝癌的年龄标化发病率、死亡率均呈波动变化,整体呈下降趋势,年均变化百分比分别下降-4.7%、-5.3%(均P<0.001)。年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort,APC)模型结果显示,HBV感染相关肝癌年龄标化发病、死亡风险随出生队列的增长而下降(P<0.001),随年龄及时期的增长呈现先增加后下降的趋势(P<0.001)。结论1990—2019年江苏省HBV感染相关肝癌发病和死亡率整体呈大幅下降趋势,发病、死亡风险随出生队列的增长而下降,随年龄及时期的增长呈现先增加后下降趋势,建议在高危成人中接种乙型肝炎疫苗(乙肝疫苗),同时加强老年人群的健康教育,进一步降低未来江苏省肝癌疾病负担。Objective To analyze the current status and the temporal trend of hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection-related liver cancer incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Health Data Exchange(GHDx)database.Methods The incidence and mortality data of HBV infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the GHDx database.The temporal trend of age-standardized incidence/mortality rates was analyzed by Joinpoint software.The effect of age,period and cohort factors on age-specific incidence/mortality changes was assessed using an age-period-cohort model.Results From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence and mortality of HBV infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province showed fluctuations.The overall trend showed a significant downward trend,with the average annual percent change decreasing by-4.7%and-5.3%(all P<0.001),respectively.The results of the age-period-cohort model indicated that the age-standardized incidence and mortality of HBV infection-related liver cancer decreased with the increase of the birth cohort(P<0.001),and showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing with the increase of age and period(P<0.001).Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the incidence and mortality of HBV infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province showed a significant downward trend.The risk of incidence and mortality decreased with the growth of the birth cohort and showed a trend of increasing followed by decreasing with age and period.Vaccinating hepatitis B among high-risk adults and strengthening health education for the elderly population,could further reduce the future disease burden of liver cancer in Jiangsu Province.

关 键 词：乙型肝炎病毒 肝癌 趋势分析 江苏省 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]