基于动力过程的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法  

Risk Assessment Method of Debris Flow Hazard Based on Dynamic Process

作　　者：谢奎林 陈兴长[1] 陈慧[1] 唐勤 冯鑫 XIE Kui-lin;CHEN Xing-zhang;CHEN Hui;TANG Qin;FENG Xin(Tianfu Institute of Research and Innovation,School of Environment and Resources,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学环境与资源学院天府新区创新研究院,绵阳621010

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第29期12406-12415,共10页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0902)。

摘　　要：单沟泥石流危险性分区对泥石流滩地合理开发利用和灾害精细化管理具有重要意义。目前的泥石流危险性评价大多从孕灾环境入手,无法对泥石流危害范围进行危险性分区。在泥石流危害方式分析的基础上,提出了基于动力过程的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。研究表明,泥石流的危害能力主要与泥深(H)和流速(V)密切相关,进而提出了以泥深(H)和动量(HV)为分区指标的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。根据分区指标,将单沟泥石流的危险区划分为高、中、低3个等级;高危险区泥深H≥1.5 m或动量HV≥6 m^(2)/s,低危险区泥深H<0.5 m且动量HV<1 m^(2)/s,其他危险区均为中等危险区。最后,基于提出的评价方法对甘肃舟曲“8·7”特大泥石流进行了危险性分析,验证了方法的可行性和实用性。The risk zoning of a debris flow is of great significance for rational exploitation and utilization of the debris flow fan and fine management of disaster.At present,the risk assessment method of debris flow is mostly based on its formation conditions.The result of assessment is more like a susceptibility assessment and cannot delineate the areas with different risks.On the basis of hazard mode analysis of debris flow,a single gully debris flow hazard assessment method based on dynamic processes was proposed.The ana-lysis results show that the destructive capacity of a debris flow is closely related to the mud depth(H) and flow velocity(V).And then the mud depth(H) and momentum(HV) were choose as zoning indicators and the risk assessment method of debris flow was built using these indicators.According to the indicators,the hazardous area of debris flow was divided into three grades of high,medium and low.In a high risk area,the mud depth(H) is not less than 1.5 m,or the momentum(HV) is greater or equal to 6 m^(2)/s.In a low risk area,the mud depth(H) is less than 0.5 m and the momentum(HV) is less than 1 m^(2)/s.The other hazardous areas are medium risk area.Finally,the risk assessment of debris flow,using the risk assessment method proposed was conducted that occurred in Zhouqu,Gansu Province on August 7th of 2010.The evaluation result was in reasonable agreement with the actual hazards,which verified the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险性评价 动力过程 危害方式 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]