消费升级的产业结构升级效应研究  

Research on Effects of Consumption Upgrading on Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：叶胥[1] 王鹏帆 毛中根[1] YE Xu;WANG Pengfan;MAO Zhonggen(School of Chinese Western Economic Research,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2023年第11期17-31,共15页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“新时代居民消费发展的驱动机制及政策研究”(72033007);国家自然科学基金面上项目“绿色消费的内涵刻画、指数测度及发展机制研究”(71873107)。

摘　　要：中国既是生产大国,也是消费大国,在此基础上实现供需结构高水平动态平衡具有重要的理论和现实意义。因此,通过理论模型阐释消费升级对产业结构升级的影响及机制,并基于2000—2017年的省级面板数据,构建双重固定效应模型进行实证分析。研究发现,消费升级不仅促进产业结构整体升级,还推动制造业和服务业内部结构优化。经过工具变量法和系统GMM检验,结论仍然稳健。这种促进作用主要由需求牵引效应实现,也通过引致技术创新和培育人力资本等机制发挥正向推动作用;但消费升级也会抑制投资需求,并对资本密集的制造业部门产生负向影响,总体上正向促进作用占主导地位。在建设强大国内消费市场的同时,也要引导投资流向知识和技术密集型的高端制造业部门,增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。异质性分析表明,经济发达省份以及东部地区消费升级的产业结构升级效应更为明显。进一步分析发现,消费结构变动和消费规模扩大均是产业结构升级的驱动因素。经过测算,目前中国居民消费率仍低于大国最优水平,降低居民消费偏离程度,能进一步发挥消费升级对产业结构升级的促进作用,增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。研究结论为实现需求引导下的产业结构升级提供了理论和经验上的支持,也为增强消费基础性作用提供了决策参考。China’s economy has been transformed from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.Conducting supply-side structural reform has become an essential task for the current economic development,and promoting industrial structure upgrading is the way to supply-side structural reform.The impact of the new coronary epidemic,the rise of trade protectionism,over-reliance on national markets and technological transfer make the original growth path unsustainable.In order to cope with the complex situation,report to the 20th National Congress of the CPA emphasizes fostering a new pattern of development focused on the domestic economy,and it features a positive interplay between domestic and international economic flows.China is a large producer and consumer countries,the strategy to expand domestic demand is integrated with deepen supply-side structural reform.Based on the theoretical analysis and provincial panel data from 2000—2017 a two-way fixed effects model is built to study the influence of consumption upgrading on industrial structural upgrading.After verification by the IV model and the system GMM,the conclusion is robust.The results show that,consumption upgrading promotes the overall optimization of industrial structure and the inner structure of the manufacturing and service industries.The demand traction effect mainly drives the promotion and plays a positive role by driving technological innovation and improving human capital.However,consumption upgrading can dampen investment demand and harm the capital-intensive manufacturing sector,with a dominant positive contribution overall.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the industrial structure upgrading effect of consumption upgrading in economically developed provinces and eastern regions is more pronounced.Further analysis shows that both the change of consumption structure and the expansion of consumption scale drive industrial structure upgrading.The household consumption rate is still lower than the optimal level.Therefore,the promotion

关 键 词：消费升级 产业结构整体升级 产业内升级 双重固定效应模型 消费潜力 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]