传染病多阶段、多场景监测预警多样化方法体系的研究与思考  

Research and reflection on the diversified method system of multi-stages and multi-scenarios surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases

作　　者：马宇航 殷一 王凯[2] 周思佳 佟训靓[3] 李燕明[3] 王小莉[4] 王丽萍[5] 冯录召 杨维中 彭志行[1] Ma Yuhang;Yin Yi;Wang Kai;Zhou Sijia;Tong Xunliang;Li Yanming;Wang Xiaoli;Wang Liping;Feng Luzhao;Yang Weizhong;Peng Zhihang(School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China;The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210029,China;Beijing Hospital Respiratory and Critical Care Department,Beijing 100005,China;Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China;Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Department of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;School of Population Medicine and Public Health,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medicine College,Beijing 100730,China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166 [2]南京医科大学第一附属医院,南京210029 [3]北京医院呼吸与危重症科,北京100005 [4]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京100013 [5]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病防控处,北京102206 [6]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院群医学及公共卫生学院,北京100730

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2023年第10期1529-1535,共7页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82820108018);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC2304000);北京市自然科学基金(7202073);中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程(2021-I2M-1-044)。

摘　　要：传染病的暴发流行让监测和预警工作受到越来越多的重视,及时、准确的监测数据是传染病防治工作的基础,有效的传染病预警方法能够提高预警工作及时性和灵敏度。本文简要介绍了传染病智能预警模型,总结了新兴的传染病监测预警方法,寻求在传染病不同流行阶段、不同暴发场景中开展多样化监测预警的可能性,提出构建传染病多阶段、多场景监测预警多样化方法体系的设想,探讨了传染病监测预警的未来发展趋势,为提升我国传染病监测预警体系建设水平提供参考。With the outbreak of infectious diseases,more and more attention has been paid to surveillance and early warning work.Timely and accurate monitoring data is the basis of infectious diseases prevention and control.Effective early warning methods for infectious diseases can improve the timeliness and sensitivity of early warning work.This paper briefly introduces the intelligent early warning model of infectious diseases,summarizes the emerging surveillance and early warning methods of infectious diseases,and seeks the possibility of diversified surveillance and early warning in different epidemic stages and different outbreak scenarios of infectious diseases.This paper puts forward the idea of constructing a diversified method system of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning based on multi-stages and multi-scenarios and discusses the future development trend of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning,in order to provide reference for improving the construction level of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning system in China.

关 键 词：传染病监测 监测预警方法 多阶段 多场景 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]