辽宁中部农作物生长季干旱风险度研究  

Study on Drought Risk Degree of Crop Growth Season in Central Liaoning

作　　者：韩艳凤[1] HAN Yanfeng(Anshan Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province,Anshan 114004,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省鞍山市气象局,辽宁鞍山114004

出　　处：《农学学报》2023年第10期77-82,共6页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：科技部农业科技成果转化项目“农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用”(05ESN217400412)。

摘　　要：掌握辽宁中部农作物生长季降水量变化与干旱风险度,为辽宁中部农业产业结构调整、规避干旱风险和农业生产管理提供参考。利用沈阳区域气象中心1961—2020年的降水和气温数据,采用气候诊断分析方法,选用积分湿润指数及其干湿指数研究降水量对农作物生长季的满足程度、干旱变化特征及干旱风险程度。结果表明:1961—2020年辽宁中部农作物生长季降水量呈减少趋势,线性减少40.5 mm;降水满足度和干湿指数呈下降趋势,分别线性下降14.5%和0.13;干旱风险度呈显著上升趋势,最大干旱风险度上升17.3%,2000—2020年平均上升11.0个百分点。播种苗期中旱+大旱约3 a一次;旺长期中旱+大旱概率约20 a一次;成熟期中旱+大旱约4 a一次。研究结果为掌握降水变化状态,干旱变化特征,认知干旱的严重程度,规避干旱风险,为“三农”及粮食生产安全以及农业结构调整和防旱减灾提供参考。The study aims to grasp the precipitation change and drought risk degree of crop growth season in central Liaoning,and provide reference for the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure,the avoidance of drought risk and the management of agricultural production in the region.Using the precipitation and temperature data of Shenyang Regional Meteorological Center from 1961 to 2020,the author adopted the climate diagnostic analysis method,and chose integral humidity index and dry and wet index to study the satisfaction degree of precipitation to crop growth season,drought change characteristics and drought risk degree.The results showed that the precipitation in the growing season of crops in central Liaoning decreased from 1961 to 2020,with a linear decrease of 40.5 mm.Precipitation satisfaction degree and dry and wet index both showed a downward trend,with a linear decline of 14.5% and 0.13,respectively.The drought risk degree showed a significant upward trend,with the maximum drought risk degree increasing by 17.3%,and an average increase of 11.0 percentage points from 2000 to 2020.Medium drought and severe drought in sowing and seedling periods was about once every three years.Medium drought and severe drought in crop vigorous growth period was about once every 20 years,medium drought and severe drought occurred once every four years in crop mature period.The results can provide reference for understanding the change state of precipitation and drought change characteristics in central Liaoning,recognizing the severity of drought,and avoiding drought risks.The research can also be conducive to“agriculture,rural areas and farmers”,food security,agricultural structure adjustment,drought disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：农作物生长季 降水量 积分湿润指数 干湿指数 干旱风险度 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]