降雨微分响应修正在港口湾水库洪水预报中的适用性分析  

Applicability Analysis of Rainfall Differential Response Correction in Flood Forecasting of Gangkouwan Reservoir

作　　者：王玉丽 李京兵[1] 张峰[2] 张锦堂[1] WANG Yuli;LI Jingbing;ZHANG Feng;ZHANG Jintang(Anhui Provincial Hydrology Bureau,Hefei 230001,Anhui,China;School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Anhui Water Conservancy and Hydropower Vocational and Technical College,Hefei 230001,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省水文局,安徽合肥230001 [2]安徽水利水电职业技术学院资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《水力发电》2023年第11期36-40,共5页Water Power

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金“水科学”联合基金项目(22080-85US06)。

摘　　要：港口湾水库位于长江南岸一级支流水阳江上游支流西津河上,对水阳江流域防洪起着重要作用。降雨微分响应修正是基于系统和微分角度的模型误差修正方法,将该方法应用于港口湾水库流域,对该流域23场历史洪水分别进行雨量单站微分响应与流域平均微分响应2种模式的修正计算。计算结果表明,2种模式的降雨微分响应修正方法在不损失预见期的情况下均能够有效地提高港口湾水库洪水预报的精度,值得进一步研究与推广。Gangkouwan Reservoir is located on the Xijin River,an upstream tributary of the Shuiyang River,a first-class tributary on the south bank of Yangtze River.The reservoir plays an important role in the flood control of Shuiyang River basin.As a model error correction method based on the system and differential angle,the differential response correction of rainfall is applied to Gangkouwang Reservoir basin to carry out the correction calculation of the rainfall single-station differential response and the average differential response of the basin for 23 historical floods in the basin,respectively.The calculation results show that the differential rainfall response correction method of two models can effectively improve the accuracy of flood prediction of Gangkouwan Reservoir without losing the forecast period,which is worthy of further research and promotion.

关 键 词：洪水预报 降雨微分响应 适用性分析 修正 港口湾水库 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]