基于云模型的深圳市降水时空分布研究  

Analysis on Characteristics of Precipitation Distribution in Shenzhen City Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：梁巧茵 李帅杰 孙翔 张明凯 LIANG Qiaoyin;LI Shuaijie;SUN Xiang;ZHANG Mingkai(Shenzhen Water Planning&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518001,Guangdong,China;CAUPD Beijing Planning&Design Consultants Ltd.,Beijing 100044,China;School of Environment,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,Heilongjiang,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China;Beijing Institute of Collaborative Innovation,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市水务规划设计院股份有限公司,广东深圳518001 [2]中规院(北京)规划设计有限公司,北京100044 [3]哈尔滨工业大学环境学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090 [4]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055 [5]北京协同创新研究院,北京100094

出　　处：《水力发电》2023年第11期41-47,共7页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51979136)。

摘　　要：为研究深圳市降水的时空分布规律及演变特征,基于深圳市11个雨量观测站点1960年~2020年逐月降水数据,采用正向云发生器算法及多步式逆向云变换算法构建云模型,并结合趋势分析及突变检验等方法,定性及定量分析了深圳市的降水时空演变特征。结果表明:深圳市降水量年内存在6月和8月2个峰值,汛期降水离散程度高,6月稳定性最低;11月~次年2月降水量相近且较小,稳定性较高;年降水量总体上呈增加趋势;1992年为降水突变年,突变后的降水量增加,降水不均匀性增加,稳定性降低;年降水量在时间分布上更离散,更不稳定;深圳市降水量及降水不均匀性空间分布均从东南向西北递减,东部地区降水量最大,降水最不均匀,中部地区降水最为稳定。研究成果能为深圳市水资源管理、防洪排涝及气候变化研究提供科学参考。In order to study the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of precipitation in Shenzhen,based on the monthly precipitation data from 11 rainfall observation stations in Shenzhen from 1960 to 2020,the cloud model is constructed using the positive cloud generator algorithm and the multi-step inverse cloud transformation algorithm,combined with trend analysis and abrupt change test methods to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of precipitation in Shenzhen.The results show that,(a)there are two peaks of the annual precipitation in Shenzhen,which occur in June and August respectively,and the precipitation during the flood season is highly dispersed and the stability is the lowest in June;(b)the precipitation from November to February is similar and relatively small,and the stability is higher;(c)the annual precipitation shows an overall increasing trend;(d)the year 1992 is a year of precipitation mutation,with an increase in precipitation and unevenness,and a decrease in stability;(e)compared with spatial distribution,annual precipitation is more dispersed and unstable in temporal distribution;and(f)the spatial distribution of precipitation and unevenness in Shenzhen decreases from southeast to northwest,with the highest and most uneven precipitation in the eastern region and the most stable precipitation in the central region.The research results can provide scientific reference for water resources management,flood control and climate change research in Shenzhen.

关 键 词：降水 时空分布 云模型 趋势分析 突变检验 GIS 深圳市 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]