淮河流域稻麦轮作系统CH4通量模拟及减排研究  

Simulation and reduction of CH4 flux emission in a rice–wheat rotation system in the Huai River Basin,China

作　　者：虞晓兰 张方敏 方砚秋 卢燕宇[2,3] 张凯迪 倪婷 YU Xiaolan;ZHANG Fangmin;FANG Yanqiu;LU Yanyu;ZHANG Kaidi;NI Ting(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031,China;Shouxian National Climatology Observatory,Huai River Basin Typical Farm Eco-meteorological Experiment Field of CMA,Shouxian 232200,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [2]安徽省气象局气象科学研究所/大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室,合肥230031 [3]寿县国家气候观象台,中国气象局淮河流域典型农田生态气象野外科学试验基地,安徽寿县232200

出　　处：《农业环境科学学报》2023年第10期2346-2357,共12页Journal of Agro-Environment Science

基　　金：江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金(BK20220017);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金(2021SYIAEKFMS37);中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSQ011)。

摘　　要：为研究气候变化下不同管理措施对淮河流域稻麦轮作农田生态系统CH_(4)通量的影响,通过参数率定后的DNDC(DeNitrification-DeComposition)模型,估算了淮河流域历史时期(2000—2020年)及未来(2021—2049年)RCP4.5(中等排放强度情景)和RCP8.5(高排放强度情景)两种情景下稻麦轮作农田CH_(4)通量时空分布特征,评估了未来气候变化下多种田间管理措施对流域CH_(4)的减排能力。结果表明:淮河流域历史时期区域CH_(4)通量平均排放强度为125.3 kg·hm^(-2),未来两种情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下区域CH_(4)通量平均排放强度分别为140.5 kg·hm^(-2)和150.5 kg·hm^(-2),总体均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.01)。空间上,未来两种情景下CH_(4)通量空间分布特征相似,均呈现南部和西北部地区CH_(4)通量高,东北部和中西部地区CH_(4)通量低的特征。与基础措施相比,不同施肥量措施均减少了CH_(4)排放,但不同秸秆还田措施提高了CH_(4)排放水平。研究表明,在仅考虑控制淮河流域CH_(4)通量的情况下,秸秆不还田+减量施肥20%是未来气候变化情景下最佳田间管理措施。To study the impact of different management measures on CH_(4)fluxes in rice-wheat rotation cropland ecosystems in the Huai River Basin under future climate change scenarios,the CH_(4)fluxes and their spatiotemporal characteristics during the historical period(2000—2020)and the future(2021—2049)under RCP4.5(medium emission intensity)and RCP8.5(high emission intensity)scenarios were estimated using the DeNitrification-DeComposition(DNDC)model following parameter calibration.Compared with the basic measure during the historical period,the CH_(4)reduction capacities of different field management measures were evaluated under different future climate change scenarios.The following results were obtained.The average emission intensity of regional CH_(4)flux in the basin during the historical period was 125.3 kg·hm^(-2),whereas those in the future were 140.5 kg·hm^(-2) and 150.5 kg·hm^(-2) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,they all exhibited significant upward trends(P<0.01).The spatial distribution characteristics of CH_(4)flux were similar under the two future scenarios,with high and low CH_(4)fluxes in the southern and northwestern and northeastern and central western regions,respectively.Compared with the basic measure,different fertilizer application measures reduced CH_(4)emissions,whereas straw returning measures increased them.Hence,when only CH_(4)flux in the Huai River Basin was regulated,the optimal field management measure under the two future climate change scenarios was no return straw to the field with a 20%reduction in fertilizer application.

关 键 词：稻麦轮作农田 气候变化 CH4通量 DNDC模型 减排措施 秸秆还田 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]