山东省人口老龄化空间格局及影响因素研究  

Study on the spatial pattern of population ageing and the influencing factors in Shandong province

作　　者：陈素青 任秋蔚 葛文渊 刘兆德[3] 赵虎[3] CHEN Suqing;REN Qiuwei;GE Wenyuan;LIU Zhaode;ZHAO Hu(Shandong Jianzhu University Library,Ji’nan 250101,China;Weifang Planning Research Center,Weifang 261021,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Shandong Jianzhu University,Ji’nan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学图书馆,山东济南250101 [2]潍坊市规划编制研究中心,山东潍坊261021 [3]山东建筑大学建筑城规学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《陕西理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期83-92,共10页Journal of Shaanxi University of Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51878393)。

摘　　要：基于第五次、第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,采用空间自相关、半变异函数法等方法揭示了山东省人口老龄化空间分异特征,并运用地理探测器模型定量识别人口老龄化空间分异的影响因素。结果表明:(1)近20年来,老龄化程度不断加剧,重度老年型成为区域老龄化主导类型;设区市辖区老龄化水平、增量和速度均低于周围县市,都市圈核心区域老龄化水平低于都市圈拓展区。(2)人口老龄化空间正相关性较显著,“高-高”关联区集中在胶东经济圈,“低-低”关联区分布相对分散;空间自相关引起的结构性分异较为明显,随机因素造成的空间变异呈小幅增加的趋势,空间分异度十分明显的方向为东-西方向。(3)出生率、死亡率是老龄化空间分异的主要因素,人口老龄化的空间分异是人口和社会经济因素共同作用的结果,两两因子之间的交互作用能够增强对人口老龄化空间分异的解释力。Based on the data from the fifth,sixth and seventh population censuses,spatial autocorrelation and semi-variance function methods are used to reveal the characteristics of the spatial variation of population ageing in Shandong province,and the geographic probe model is used to quantitatively identify the influencing factors of the spatial variation of population ageing.The results show that:(1) In the past 20 years,the degree of ageing has been increasing,with the heavily aged type becoming the dominant type of regional ageing;the level,increase and speed of ageing in the districts under the jurisdiction of the municipalities are lower than those in the surrounding counties and cities,and the level of ageing in the core area of the metropolitan area is lower than that in the extended area of the metropolitan area.(2) The positive spatial correlation of population ageing is significant,with the “high-high” correlation area concentrated in the Jiaodong Economic Circle and the “low-low” correlation area relatively scattered;the structural divergence caused by spatial autocorrelation is obvious,and the spatial variation caused by random factors is increasing slightly,and the spatial divergence is very obvious in the east-west direction.(3) The spatial variation of population ageing is the result of a combination of demographic and socio-economic factors,and the interaction between the two factors can enhance the explanatory power of the spatial variation of population ageing.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 空间分异 半变异函数 地理探测器 山东省 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]