滇东南至桂西南铁路通道规划方案研究  

Study on the Planning Scheme of Railway Corridor from Southeast Yunnan to Southwest Guangxi

作　　者：宁超[1,2] 郭春江 甘超 NING Chao;GUO Chunjiang;GAN Chao(China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610031,China;CREC Research Center of Belt and Road Interconnectivity,Chengdu 610031,China;Development&Reform Department,China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100844,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司,成都610031 [2]中国中铁“一带一路”互联互通研究中心,成都610031 [3]中国国家铁路集团有限公司发改部,北京100844

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2023年第11期1-8,共8页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：国家铁路局课题研究计划(KFJF2019-066);中国国家铁路集团有限公司前期研究课题(CRC-2020-912)。

摘　　要：铁路规划是铁路建设项目实施的前提和基础,其方案将影响项目财务效益、区域路网分工,乃至沿线国土资源开发和区域经济社会发展。为合理布局滇东南、桂西南地区铁路通道,结合中长期铁路网规划,提出南昆铁路扩能、新建蒙自—文山—百色、新建蒙自—文山—靖西、新建蒙自—文山—防城港一次性实施和分段实施共5个备选方案。基于区域运输需求预测,对不同路网条件的通道运量进行动态分配,得到各规划方案的客货运量。考虑与项目可研、初步设计等阶段相比,规划研究阶段使用的定量指标普遍较少,且数据多为估算值,精度偏低,结合规划阶段基础信息的可获取性,构建了由工程投资、建设工期、财务内部收益率、路网能力利用均衡性、运输时效、路网分工以及国土覆盖共7个指标的方案评价体系。为提高决策的科学性,减少人为主观因素影响,采用三角模糊数对专家给出的指标权重以及各方案的定性指标进行转化,并运用TOPSIS法,测算各方案的相对贴近度,对规划方案进行排序选优。计算结果显示,新建蒙自经文山至靖西方案得分最高,应作为滇东南至桂西南地区的铁路通道。Railway network planning is a critical presupposition and cornerstone for promoting railway projects due to its significant effectiveness on the project financial benefits,the main functions of railway lines in railway network,the socio-economic development and land use of the areas along the railways.Based on the National medium and long-term railway network planning,the paper proposes five solutions for the southeastern Yunnan to southwestern Guangxi Railway corridor planning,including upgrading the existing Nanning-Kunming Railway,building the Mengzi-Wenshan-Baise Railway,building the Mengzi-Wenshan-Jingxi Railway,building the Mengzi-Wenshan-Fangchenggang Railway in one-step implementation and in multi-step implementations.The demand forecast of five planning solutions are respectively implemented by dynamically assigning passenger and freight flow on railway networks on the basis of regional passenger and freight demand forecast.In accordance with the requirements of the railway planning stage,the paper present a set of parameters to assess the five planning solutions.The assessment indicators include the project investment,the construction period,the financial internal rate of return,the capacity utilization of railway network,the transportation timeliness,the functions of railways in network and the promotion of land development.The triangular fuzzy number is introduced to convert the qualitative parameters and the weights of parameters to reduce the subjective influence.The technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution is applied to sort the five solutions based on the assessment indicators.The assessment results show that building Mengzi-Wenshan-Jingxi Railway is suggested to be the best solution for the planning railway corridor.

关 键 词：铁路通道规划 运输需求预测 动态分配 三角模糊数 指标权重 TOPSIS评价方法 方案比选 

分 类 号：U212.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]