市场型碳减排政策的价格竞争力效应分析  

Analysis of the Price Competitiveness Effect of Market-Based Carbon Emissions Reduction Policies

作　　者：杨长江[1] 阎晓璇 YANG Changjiang;YAN Xiaoxuan(Fudan University,200433;Industrial Securities,200135)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,200433 [2]兴业证券经济与金融研究院,200135

出　　处：《财贸经济》2023年第10期144-160,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

摘　　要：碳减排政策对价格竞争力的影响问题极为重要,但严格将价格竞争力的主要指标——实际有效汇率作为分析对象的研究非常少见,且未能考虑全球价值链对这一问题的深入影响。本文在气候变化研究中首次引入考虑全球价值链因素的实际有效汇率指标,通过构建包含异质性成本传导率的投入产出价格模型对相关测算方法进行改进,据此在使用同一框架计算出世界主要国家(或地区)全行业二氧化碳影子价格的基础上,估算了市场型碳减排政策对实际有效汇率的影响。结果表明,首先,各国边际减排成本的差异较大,我国以34.45美元/吨的价格低于大多数国家(或地区)。其次,实施碳减排政策后我国产品价格的上升幅度整体可控,小于样本中多数国家(或地区);我国行业层面,电力、燃气、蒸汽与空调供应等高能耗行业由于单位产出的碳排放较高,碳减排政策对产品价格推升作用显著,产品价格受到的影响最大。再次,通过对价格变动进行分解发现价值链因素对于各国产品价格变动都发挥举足轻重的作用。最后,综合考虑碳减排政策的价格效应与数量效应计算实际有效汇率,其变动情况反映出价格水平受碳减排政策影响较小的中国、印度以及墨西哥等国的价格竞争力有所提升。The impact of climate policy on the economy is comprehensive and profound,and its impact on international competitiveness has always been the focus of relevant policies,but existing literature rarely touches on the price competitiveness effect of carbon emissions reduction policies in a strict sense.This paper attempts,for the first time in climate change research,an analysis of the actual effective exchange rate index that takes into account global value chain factors.Based on the national all-industry carbon shadow prices calculated within the same framework as marginal emissions reduction costs,and in response to the mechanism of repeated cycles of carbon emissions reduction cost shocks in the input-output network,we used the product prices calculated by the input-output price model as price indices,constructed an actual effective exchange rate indicator that is consistent with prices and weights in the context of the global value chain,and analyzed the impact of carbon emissions reduction policies on price competitiveness.The research results are as follows.Firstly,at the 20%coverage level,carbon reduction policies led to a 0.61%increase in product prices in China in 2014,ranking ninth in the sample countries and less than most countries.By decomposing price changes,we can see that global and national value chain factors play a crucial role in the price impact of carbon reduction policies in various countries,with the national value chain having the greatest impact on the price increase of Chinese products.Secondly,based on the quantity effect,it can be inferred that due to the relatively small impact of carbon reduction policies on China's prices,when bilateral trade is affected by both import and export product prices,China's exports have increased.Thirdly,based on the analysis of global price competitiveness changes based on actual effective exchange rates,it can be concluded that due to the lower impact of carbon reduction policies on product prices,the price competitiveness of countries such as China,Ind

关 键 词：碳减排政策 实际有效汇率 投入产出价格模型 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]