2010—2020年玉溪市其他感染性腹泻病时空流行特征分析  

Spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Yuxi Prefecture from 2010 to 2020

作　　者：刘正楠 刘红雁[1] 倪兆林[1] 赵秋芳 农璐铭 冯玉唯 张译丹 曾丽萍[1] 杨汝松[1] LIU Zhengnan;LIU Hongyan;NI Zhaolin;ZHAO Qiufang;NONG Luming;FENG Yuwei;ZHANG Yidan;ZENG Liping;YANG Rusong(Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yuxi 653100,Yunnan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]玉溪市疾病预防控制中心,云南玉溪653100

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2023年第10期1178-1183,1189,共7页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的分析2010—2020年玉溪市其他感染性腹泻病的流行特征和时空分布,探索制定其他感染性腹泻的区域化精准防控策略。方法收集2010—2020年玉溪市其他感染性腹泻的监测数据并进行描述及统计学分析,以Moran’s I的值反映所研究对象之间的全局空间相关关系,以局部自相关系数(Local indicators of spatial association,LISA)评估空间水平上是否存在聚集,采用时空扫描以LLR值越大者为聚集区,检验水准α=0.05。结果2010—2020年玉溪市共报告其他感染性腹泻25478例,年均报告发病率为106.33/10万,呈上升趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=226.48,P<0.001);发病主要集中在冬季和夏季,男女比约为1.24∶1,<5岁年龄组报告发病率及发病数均最高;发病呈局部地区高发向各乡镇多点聚集的趋势变化,空间自相关结果显示“高-高”聚集区域主要分布在西南部、西北部及东北部地区;时空扫描分析提示乡镇维度上的聚集区以澧江街道、富良棚乡、海口镇、九溪镇、玉兴路街道为中心。结论2010—2020年玉溪市其他感染性腹泻病报告发病率呈上升趋势,发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰位于冬季;空间聚集区主要分布在玉溪市西南部及东北部地区,需针对重点区域制定区域化精准防控策略。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal and spatial distribution of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Yuxi Prefecture from 2010 to 2020,and to explore and formulate regionalized prevention and control strategies for other infectious diarrheal diseases.Methods The monitoring data of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Yuxi Prefecture from 2010 to 2020 were collected for description and statistical analysis.The value of Moran’s I was used to reflect the global spatial correlation between the objects studied.Local indicators of spatial association(LISA)were used to assess whether aggregation existed at the spatial level.Spatio-temporal scanning was adopted,with the larger LLR(log likelihood ratio)value as the gathering area.And the test level wasα=0.05.Results A total of 25478 cases of other infectious diarrheal diseases were reported in Yuxi Prefecture from 2010 to 2020,with an average annual reported incidence of 106.33/105,which showed an upward trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=226.48,P<0.001).The diseases mainly occurred in winter and summer,and the male to female ratio was 1.24∶1.The reported incidence and number of cases were the highest in the age group<5 years old.The incidence of the diseases showed a trend form high incidence in local areas to gathering in various towns/villages.The spatial autocorrelation results showed that the“high-high”clusters aggregation areas were mainly in the southwest,northwest and northeast regions.The spatio-temporal scanning analysis suggested that the cluster areas in town level were centered on Lijiang Street,Fuliangpeng Town,Haikou Town,Jiuxi Town and Yuxing Street.Conclusions The reported incidence rate of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Yuxi Prefecture showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2020,with an obvious seasonality of onset and incidence peak in winter.The spatial gathering areas were mainly distributed in the southwest and northeast area of Yuxi Prefecture.Targeted regionalized prevention and control strategies should be for

关 键 词：其他感染性腹泻病 空间流行病学 空间自相关 时空扫描 

分 类 号：R510[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]