CGE模型在低碳交通政策领域的应用及前景  

Application and prospects of the computable general equilibrium model in low-carbon transportation policies

作　　者：王妍[1,2] 欧国立 WANG Yan;OU Guoli(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Economics and Management Office,China Railway Economic and Planning Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]中国铁路经济规划研究院有限公司经济与管理研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第11期1693-1706,共14页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U226820015);首都高端智库课题(2021TS004);中国国家铁路集团有限公司重大课题(K2021Z010)。

摘　　要：气候变化问题十分复杂,涉及环境、经济和社会等诸多层面因素,交通排放是影响气候变化的重要因素。该文聚焦可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型在交通政策研究中的应用,共采集涵盖科学引文数据库、科学指南、中国知网等主要数据库的78篇实证研究文献,其中超过50%的文献关注了低碳交通政策的影响。通过梳理文献发现:目前低碳交通政策评估领域的CGE模型实证研究尚处于起步阶段,未来低碳交通CGE模型建模可从政策研究、模型构建和协同效益3个方面进行深入研究。该文提出了将“避免型/转换型/改善型-规划/制度/经济/信息/技术(avoid/shift/improve-planning/regulatory/economic/information/technological,ASI-PREIT)”结构的低碳交通政策矩阵纳入可达性因素的空间可计算一般均衡(spatial computable general equilibrium,SCGE)模型的建模思路,并进行了协同环境-经济-社会效益的低碳交通广义协同效益研究,为拓展低碳交通问题的研究提供参考思路。[Significance]The issue of climate change is extremely complex and encompasses multiple factors such as the environment,economy,society,and related aspects.With the ongoing maturation of complex system modeling technology,low-carbon transportation research using the computable general equilibrium(CGE)model presents a new approach to policy evaluation.The CGE model has three primary advantages for analyzing the economic challenges of transitioning to low-carbon transportation.First,the approach has a solid microeconomic foundation that can directly reflect the mechanism and influence of economic subjects'behavior under the assumption of a rational economic player.Second,CGE models are capable of fully simulating the connections of different economic sectors,which can uncover the transmission effect of transportation policy impact among various sectors,as well as the response of various sectors to the policy impact.Third,the model has two major types,static and dynamic CGE models,which can analyze the short-and long-term impact of different policies,respectively.As an essential prediction tool for policy impact and trend analysis,CGE models can comprehensively reveal the interaction characteristics between the transportation industry and the whole national economy,enabling the prediction of the economic and social impact of low-carbon transportation policies.[Progress]This study investigates contemporary research on transportation policies based on the CGE model.A total of 78 relevant empirical studies are collected from the Web of Science,Science Direct,and China National Knowledge Infrastructure,of which more than 50%focus on predicting the impact of low-carbon transportation policies,indicating that the investigation of traffic-related carbon emissions has gradually become a popular topic of empirical analysis using CGE models.The research topics include:(1)The influence of low-carbon transportation economic incentives,such as carbon tax,emission trading scheme,and transportation subsidies.(2)The application eff

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡模型 低碳交通 政策矩阵 可达性 协同效益 

分 类 号：F224.12[经济管理—国民经济]