中国城镇化动态演进的理论机制研究——基于商品、要素和城市软实力的三维视角  

Theoretical Mechanism of the Dynamic Evolution of China's Urbanization——Perspective of Commodity,Factors and Urban Soft Power

作　　者：米晋宏[1] 张聪志 何正 MI Jin-hong;ZHANG Cong-zhi;HE Zheng(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Maritime University,201306)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,201306

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2023年第9期97-106,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“海陆统筹背景下航运产业可持续发展机制研究”(批准号:42176217)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：城镇化是现代化的必经之路,我国城镇化已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。本文利用我国1991年至2021年31个省份面板数据研究中国城镇化动态演进理论机制。研究发现,商品市场、要素市场和城市软实力指数对城镇化发展具有驱动作用。以2002年和2012年为重要节点,将城镇化阶段分为早期阶段、高速增长阶段和高质量发展阶段三个阶段,研究发现影响城镇化率的因素呈现出明显的结构特征,不同阶段对应的发展驱动力不同。在初期阶段,城镇化率主要依靠商品市场经济发展驱动;在高速增长阶段,城镇化率的提高依靠商品市场和要素市场来驱动。在城镇化高质量发展期阶段,城镇化率提高的主要动力来源于城市软实力水平。此外,海陆统筹可持续发展水平、公共基础设施服务、城市环境和文化活动等城市软实力的提高会推动城镇化迈向高质量发展水平。Urbanization is the inevitable path to modernization,and China's urbanization has transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to one of high-quality development.This study utilizes panel data from 31 provinces in China spanning from 1991 to 2021 to investigate the dynamic evolution and theoretical mechanisms of urbanization in China.The research reveals that the commodity market,factor market,and urban soft power index play significant roles in driving urbanization development.Identifying 2002 and 2012 as crucial milestones,the urbanization process is divided into three stages:the early stage,the high-speed growth stage,and the high-quality development stage.The study finds that factors influencing urbanization rates exhibit distinct structural characteristics,with different stages corresponding to different driving forces.During the initial stage,urbanization primarily relies on the development of commodity markets.In the high-speed growth period,the increase in urbanization rates is driven by both commodity and factor markets.In the phase of high-quality urbanization development,the main driving force comes from the level of urban soft power.In addition,the improvement of urban soft power,such as the level of integrated sustainable development on land and sea,public infrastructure services,the urban environment and cultural activities,will drive urbanisation towards the high-quality development level.

关 键 词：城镇化 商品市场 要素市场 城市软实力 海陆统筹可持续 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]