地方政府债务的信贷挤出:超越“平均效应”的新证据  

Credit Crowding Out through Local Government Debt:New Evidence beyond the“Averaging Effect”

作　　者：王博 刘娟 Wang Bo;Liu Juan

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2023年第5期145-159,共15页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72073076);国家社会科学基金项目(18VFH007)。

摘　　要：基于2009—2020年非金融上市企业的财务数据和融资平台负债数据,实证检验地方政府债务对企业信贷融资规模的总体影响,并重点考察上述影响在“43号文”出台前后的变化及其在不同所有制企业间的差异和作用机理。结果表明,就“平均效应”而言,地方政府债务对本地企业信贷融资总体上具有负向的挤出作用。超越“平均效应”来看,地方政府债务的信贷挤出效应存在时变特征,2014年“43号文”出台后,城投债的挤出效应显著缓解,更具隐性化的银行贷款等非公开债务对企业融资的负面影响依然存在;上述影响也存在截面异质性,国有企业信贷融资受政府债务的负面影响更大。进一步拓展发现,地方政府债务对企业信贷的负向影响是一种“被动挤出”,而不是企业信贷需求减弱下的“自主选择”。因此,建议优化地方政府及融资平台公司的资金投向,推动地方债务显性化,深化银行体系改革、优化信贷资源配置。This study used the financial data of non-financial listed firms and the debt data of financing platforms from 2009 to 2020 to empirically examine the overall effect of local government debt on the size of debt financing among firms;it focused on investigating changes in the aforesaid effect before and after the promulgation of Circular No.43 and the differences and mechanism behind such changes among firms under different ownership systems.The results showed that with regard to the“averaging effect,”local government debt had a negative crowding-out effect on credit financing for local firms on the whole.Beyond the“averaging effect,”time-varying characteristics were present in the credit crowding-out effect of local government debt,where the crowding-out effect of urban construction investment bonds was significantly alleviated after the promulgation of Circular No.43,but the negative effect of non-public debt,such as implicit bank loans,continued to exist.Cross-sectional heterogeneity was also present in the effects,with credit financing for state-owned firms being more negatively affected by government debt.Further tests revealed that the negative effect of local government debt on firm credit was a type of“passive crowding out”rather than a“self-made choice”under weak credit demand from firms.Therefore,this study recommends optimizing the flow of capital from local governments and financing platform companies,promoting the explicit disclosure of local debt,deepening reform in the banking system,and optimizing the allocation of credit resources.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 信贷融资 挤出效应 “43号文” 企业所有制 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]