城镇燃气管网施工事故风险耦合机理及关键因素分析  

Analysis on risk coupling mechanism and key factors of construction accidents in urban gas pipeline network

作　　者：孙逸林 郑小强[1,2] 刘丹秀 贺艳艳 李洪兵 SUN Yilin;ZHENG Xiaoqiang;LIU Danxiu;HE Yanyan;LI Hongbing(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;Key Laboratory of Energy Security and Low-carbon Development,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;Shenzhen Gas Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen Guangdong 518049,China;College of Engineering,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu Sichuan 610101,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学能源安全与低碳发展重点实验室,四川成都610500 [3]深圳市燃气集团股份有限公司,广东深圳518049 [4]四川师范大学工学院,四川成都610101

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第10期5-12,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BZZ058);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52004241);四川省科技计划项目(2023NSFSC1038);西南石油大学科技攻关项目(2019CXTD12)。

摘　　要：为研究我国城镇燃气管网施工事故风险耦合机理及关键因素,将风险因素划分为人、机、环、管4类,风险耦合界定为单、双、多因素,进而基于2016—2022年间我国国内158起城镇燃气管网施工事故调查报告,采用N-K模型测度风险耦合水平,运用SNA方法辨识关键风险因素与风险关系。研究结果表明:事故发生概率取决于风险耦合水平,耦合水平与参与因素的数量成正比;4类因素耦合水平较高,人员风险对耦合影响较大;得到关键因素与关键关系,并根据关键因素和关键关系提出风险防控对策。研究结果可为保障城镇燃气管网施工安全提供一定参考。To explore the risk coupling mechanism and key factors of construction accidents in the urban gas pipeline network of China,firstly,the risk factors were divided into 4 categories of human,machine,environment and management,and the risk coupling was divided into 3 types,which included single,double and multi-factors risk coupling.Secondly,based on 158 accident investigation reports in China's Mainland from 2016 to 2022,the N-K model was applied to measure the risk coupling level,and the Social Network Analysis(SNA)method was applied to identify the key risk factors and risk relationships.The results show that the occurrence probability of accidents depends on the level of risk coupling,which is directly proportional to the number of risk factors involved in coupling.The coupling level of four types of factors is the highest,and the human risk has the greatest influence on risk coupling.Obtain key factors and relationships,and the risk prevention and control countermeasures are put forward.The results have reference significance for ensuring the construction safety of urban gas pipeline network.

关 键 词：燃气管网 风险耦合 关键因素 N-K模型 社会网络 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X947