基于正交试验法的高斯扩散模型预测精度研究  

Research on prediction accuracy of Gaussian diffusion model based on orthogonal test method

作　　者：马寒箫 邢志祥[1] 吴凡[1] 吴洁[1] MA Hanxiao;XING Zhixiang;WU Fan;WU Jie(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Changzhou University,Changzhou Jiangsu 213164,China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学安全科学与工程学院,江苏常州213164

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第10期164-170,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001203)。

摘　　要：为研究高斯扩散模型预测精度的影响因素,运用正交试验设计法,设计三因素五水平的正交试验,采用MATLAB软件和FDS软件分别得到高斯扩散模型理论预测值与模拟值,并引入归一化均方差NMSE将二者进行对比,采用极差分析以及方差分析法分析不同因素对高斯扩散模型预测精度的影响程度。研究结果表明:大气稳定度对高斯模型气体扩散浓度预测结果具有显著性影响,其次是气体种类,然后是气体初始密度。研究结果可为模型相关参数修正与改进提供借鉴。In order to study the factors affecting the prediction accuracy of Gaussian diffusion model,the orthogonal test with three factors and five levels was designed by using the orthogonal test design method.The MATLAB software and FDS software were used to obtain the theoretical prediction values and simulated values of Gaussian diffusion model,respectively.The normalized mean square variance NMSE was introduced to compare the two,and the influence of different factors on the prediction accuracy of Gaussian diffusion model was systematically analyzed by the range analysis and analysis of variance.The results show that the atmospheric stability has significant influence on the prediction results of gas diffusion concentration in Gaussian model,followed by gas type,and the initial density of gas.The research results can lay a foundation for the correction and improvement of model related parameters.

关 键 词：高斯扩散模型 正交试验 大气稳定度 气体种类 初始密度 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]