基于RIMER的台风灾害下城市供水系统失效情景推演研究  

Study on failure scenario deduction of urban water supply system under typhoon disaster based on RIMER

作　　者：王喆[1,2] 罗梦柯 刘丹[1,2] 吕锋[1,2] WANG Zhe;LUO Mengke;LIU Dan;LYU Feng(School of Safety Science and Emergence Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第10期178-185,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：2020年度教育部人文社会科学一般项目(20YJC630154);国家自然科学基金项目(71501151);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2016CFB467)。

摘　　要：为分析台风登陆带来风雨潮灾害时城市供水系统Natech事件,根据城市供水系统原水系统、制水系统、输配水系统以及配电系统灾害要素之间复杂的交互关系,构建城市供水系统失效情景演化贝叶斯拓扑结构;收集94例相关灾情数据进行关联数据挖掘,利用修正规则库结果集置信度的RIMER优化算法对该供水系统失效情景进行推演分析;通过采取实例,即2022年台风“暹芭”登陆广东某沿海城市时的灾情信息对本文模型进行验证。研究结果表明:实例模型推演结果与实际情况较为吻合,本文模型能有效模拟城市供水系统面临台风耦合灾害时所存在的失效情景演化关系与风险诊断情况。研究结果可为促进城市供水应急管理的精准化和高效化发展提供参考方法。In order to analyze the Natech events of urban water supply system when the typhoon landfall brings wind,rain and tide disasters,a Bayesian topology structure for the failure scenario evolution of urban water supply system was constructed according to the complex interaction relationship among the disaster elements of raw water system,water production system,water distribution system and power distribution system of urban water supply system.On this basis,94 cases of related disaster data were collected for relational data mining,and the RIMER optimization algorithm with modified confidence of rule base result set was used to conduct the deduction and analysis.The model was tested with the disaster information when Typhoon Chaba made landfall in a coastal city in Guangdong Province in 2022.The results show that the model deduction results of the example are relatively consistent with the actual situation,which proves that the model can effectively simulate the failure scenario evolution relationship and risk diagnosis situation of urban water supply system in the face of typhoon coupling disasters.The research results can provide a reference method for promoting the precise and efficient development of urban water supply emergency management.

关 键 词：城市供水系统 Natech事件 贝叶斯网络 关联规则挖掘 RIMER算法 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU984.116[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]