中国老年照料行业劳动力的需求与供给展望——以中老年女性为例  

Analysis on the Demand and Supply of Elderly Care Workforce in China--The Case of Middle-aged and Older Women

作　　者：封婷[1] 郑真真[1] 马仲雁 FENG Ting;ZHENG Zhenzhen;MA Zhongyan(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,100710,China;Department of Sociology Studies,The University of Sheffield,Sheffield,S102TN,United Kingdom)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100710 [2]谢菲尔德大学社会学院,谢菲尔德S102TN

出　　处：《人口学刊》2023年第5期43-54,共12页Population Journal

基　　金：中国社会科学院妇女/性别研究中心课题项目:老年女性人力资源开发研究——以老年照料行业为例(fnzx034-2024)。

摘　　要：中国老龄化进程加速,老年人口照料需求巨大,提供照料的人数不足将持续制约老年照料行业发展。中老年女性是从事老年照料的主力,当前她们退休年龄和劳动参与率低,制约了劳动力供给。人口预测显示未来二三十年中老年女性数量处于历史高位,教育和健康水平提升,隔代抚育等家庭职责减轻,劳动力资源利用潜力大。本文参考澳大利亚和日本中老年女性在直接照料劳动力中的比例,结合我国人口和照料需求预测,预计中国2020-2050年对中老年女性劳动力数量的需求将快速增长,年均增长率为9.9%。2050年中国对45-64岁女性直接照料工作人员的需求将达到896万人至1077万人。2040年前后中老年女性人口数量达到峰值随后开始下降,老年照料行业对中老年女性劳动力的需求数量占相应年龄段女性人口的比例将在2040年之后快速增长,预计2050年达到6%左右。我国老年照料行业劳动力供给和需求匹配面临独生子女家庭的养老问题、劳动力属地化不足、社会保障水平低、家庭照料选择和照料服务业发展不足等问题,解决供求缺口需要打破家庭界线,依靠养老的社会大循环协调应对。建议完善退休制度、提高社保覆盖水平和灵活性、鼓励劳动力属地化和兼职化,推动中老年女性人力资源开发和老年照料行业发展。China’s ageing process is accelerating,demand for elderly care is huge and the lack of man⁃power will continue to constrain the development of the elderly care industry.Middle-aged and older women are the mainstay of the elderly care workforce.Population projections indicate that the number of middle-aged and older women will be at an all-time high in the next 20 to 30 years,with improved educa⁃tion and health levels,and an abundant supply of human resources.Referring to the proportion of middle aged and older women in the direct care workforce in Australia and Japan,combined with China’s popula⁃tion and care demand projections,the number of middle-aged and older women demanded in direct care is expected to grow rapidly from 2020 to 2050 in China,at an average annual rate of 9.9%.By 2050,the de⁃mand for women aged 45-64 will reach 10.77 million by Australian standards,while by Japanese standards the demand will grow to 8.96 million.As the scale of the middle-aged and older female population shrinks,the proportion of demanded middle-aged and older women among the middle-aged and older female popu⁃lation will grow even faster after 2040,with the proportion expected to reach around 6%by 2050.China faces a special context for matching the supply and demand of elderly care workforce,including the problem of elderly care in one-child families,inadequate localization of the workforce,low levels of social security,limited family care options and development of care services.Solving the supply and demand gap requires breaking down family boundaries and relying on the general social cycle to coordinate responses.It is rec⁃ommended that the retirement system be improved,social security levels be raised and part-time work be encouraged to promote human resource development for middle-aged and older women and the develop⁃ment of the elderly care sector.

关 键 词：老年照料行业劳动力 中老年女性 供需匹配 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]