我国研发资本折旧率和存量测算  

Estimating the Depreciation Rate of R&D and Accounting the Capital Stock of R&D in China

作　　者：许永洪[1] 杜瑶 王璐[1] Xu Yonghong;Du Yao;Wang Lu

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院统计学与数据科学系

出　　处：《统计研究》2023年第8期3-17,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“国家治理能力现代化的测度理论、方法与进展评价研究”(21&ZD146)。

摘　　要：研发资本折旧率是研发资本存量测算过程中最重要的变量,但以往研究对研发资本折旧的取值较为主观。为此,本文利用前瞻利润模型对我国市场生产者的研发资本折旧率进行估算,进而在《中国国民经济核算体系(2016)》框架下,测算我国1990—2021年的研发资本存量。为提高研发资本折旧率估计结果的准确性和可靠性,本文通过分行业的估计方式对模型中的关键参数——研发带来的利润率进行估算,同时通过国内外同行业对比以及稳健性分析对本文研发折旧率估算结果的合理性进行验证,最终测算结果显示我国市场生产者研发资本折旧率为26.37%。考虑到不同生产主体对研发活动侧重点有所不同,本文在对非市场和市场生产者分别测算的基础上,估算我国1990—2021年间的研发资本存量。结果表明,1990—2021年,我国研发资本存量一直处于增长趋势,其中市场生产者在2002年首次超过非市场生产者占据研发的主导位置,成为推动我国研发资本存量增长的主要贡献者。The core variable in the calculation of R&D capital stock is the R&D capital depreciation rate,but most of previous studies treat it subjectively.Therefore,we use the Forward-Looking Profit Model of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimate the depreciation rate of R&D capital of Chinese market producers,and estimate China's R&D capital stock from 1990 to 2021 under the framework of Chinese System of National Accounts 2016.In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the estimation results of the depreciation rate of R&D capital,we estimate the key parameter in the model-the profit margin brought by R&D through industry-by-industry estimation.The rationality of the R&D depreciation rate estimation results in this paper is verified by the comparison of the same industry at home and abroad and robustness analysis.The final calculation results show that the average R&D capital depreciation rate of Chinese market producers is 26.37%.Considering that different production entities have different emphasis on R&D activities,we estimate China's R&D capital stock from 1990 to 2021 on the basis of separately measuring market producers and non-market producers.The results show that from 1990 to 2021,China's R&D capital stock has been in a growing trend,in which market producers surpassed non-market producers to occupy the leading position in R&D for the first time in 2002,becoming the main contributor to the growth of China's R&D capital stock.

关 键 词：研发资本折旧率 前瞻利润模型 研发资本存量 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济]