俄乌冲突与国际矿业市场演化  

The Evolution of the International Mining Market and China’s Governance in the Context of the Russia⁃Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：朱清 牛茂林 朱海碧 ZHU Qing;NIU Maolin;ZHU Haibi(International Mining Research Center of China Geological Survey,Beijing 100083,China;China Mining News,Beijing100083,China;Lanzhou Mineral Exploration,Lanzhou 730046,China;China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局国际矿业研究中心,北京100037 [2]中国矿业报社,北京100037 [3]甘肃省有色金属地质勘查局兰州矿产勘查院,甘肃兰州730046 [4]中国地质大学(武汉),湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2023年第10期20-31,共12页Pacific Journal

基　　金：自然资源部青年科技人才工程项目“战略性矿产品供应链与产业链安全战略研究”(121106000000180039-2203);中国地质调查项目“矿业转型发展综合评价与服务”(DD20230124);“战略性矿产资源市场跟踪与矿业大数据分析”(DD20211403);“全球矿业大数据挖掘集成与智能决策服务平台建设”(DD20201118)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯三个国家矿产资源丰富,石油、天然气、钾盐等优势矿产影响全球市场。三个国家间矿业彼此依赖,博弈共存。俄乌冲突冲击矿产资源产业链和供应链,加剧全球能源危机和粮食危机,推动矿业金融治理格局演变,深刻影响国际矿业市场演化进程。俄乌冲突初期,区域矿产资源供应链中断,部分矿业开发停滞,矿业市场预期调整,矿产品价格剧烈波动。伴随着俄乌冲突的长期化与扩大化,西方与俄罗斯的制裁及反制裁持续推进国际矿业市场贸易格局和结构变化,进而引起生产格局和结构转变。美西方与俄罗斯矿业合作裂痕扩大。欧盟寻求能源进口渠道多元化,加速与俄罗斯能源“脱钩”,与美国能源贸易额急速扩大,石油和煤炭消费增加,清洁能源消费总量快速下降,“双碳”目标出现逆流。俄罗斯能源出口转向亚洲。中国能源资源进口成本增加。全球煤炭生产和消费创下历史新高,全球“双碳”目标实现成本提升。应坚持人类命运共同体理念,深化能源资源矿产多边谈判,推进全球矿业开放和公平治理,保障矿产资源供应链产业链稳定。In this round of Russia⁃Ukraine conflict,the mining activities of Russia,Ukraine and Belarus were directly impacted.The rich mineral resources and key geographical locations of the three countries affect the global mining market.In the mining industry,these three countries rely on each other and coexist in a game.This round of the Russia⁃Ukraine conflict has profoundly affected the evolution of the international mining market and impacted the industrial chain and supply chain of mineral resources.As a result of this,the Russia⁃Ukraine conflict exacerbated the global energy and food crisis and triggered the evolution of the mining financial governance pattern.In the early stage of the conflict,the supply chains of mineral resources in Russia,Ukraine,Belarus and the European Union were damaged.Some mining projects were interrupted,mining market expectations were adjusted,and mineral product prices fluctuated sharply.With the protracted and expanding conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the sanctions and anti⁃sanctions between the West and Russia have continued to promote the trade pattern and structural changes in the international mining market,leading to changes in the production pattern and structure.The interruption and suspension of mining cooperation projects between the West and Russia has widened the cracks in the industrial chain.The European Union is actively seeking to diversify its sources of energy import,and accel⁃erating its decoupling from Russian energy.Meanwhile,the EU’s energy trade with the United States is rapidly expanding.The energy transformation of the EU has resulted in an increase in its consumption of oil and coal,a rapid decline in the total consumption of clean energy,and a damage to achieving the dual carbon target.Global coal production and consumption have reached historic highs,and the cost of achieving the global dual carbon target thus has increased.Russia’s energy and resource exports are shifting towards the Asian regions,and there are development expectations for

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 矿业市场 供应链 能源危机 全球治理 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] F415[政治法律—政治学]