2000—2019年西南高山峡谷区植被变化对气候变化和人类活动的响应  

Vegetation change responses to climate change and human activities in southwest alpine canyon areas of China from 2000 to 2019

作　　者：赖金林 齐实[1,2] 廖瑞恩 崔冉冉 李鹏 唐颖[1] LAI Jinlin;QI Shi;LIAO Rui'en;CUI Ranran;LI Peng;TANG Ying(School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation State Forestry Bureau,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]水土保持国家林业局重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2023年第14期155-163,共9页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1302903)。

摘　　要：为了探究中国典型生态环境脆弱区——西南高山峡谷区植被变化对气候变化和人类活动的响应规律,量化气候变化和人类活动的相对贡献,该研究基于2000—2019年归一化差异植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)数据集,采用Theil-Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和Hurst指数分析了NDVI时空变化特征及未来变化趋势;在此基础上结合气象因子数据集,采用相关性分析和残差分析探讨了NDVI对气候变化和人类活动的响应。结果表明:1)时间尺度上,2000—2019年NDVI总体表现为波动上升趋势,增长速率为0.0046/a。空间尺度上,NDVI呈上升趋势区域面积占研究区总面积85.59%,植被恢复效果明显,且未来NDVI变化还将以上升趋势为主。2)在区域气候暖干化的背景下,NDVI对不同气候因子的响应有所差异,总体上NDVI与气温和太阳辐射呈正相关,而与降雨量呈负相关,气温对NDVI变化的影响力要强于太阳辐射和降雨量,是影响NDVI变化的主要气候因子。3)85.10%区域面积的植被变化受人类活动和气候变化的共同影响,其中人类活动是植被变化的主要驱动因素,气候变化为次要驱动因素,相对贡献率分别为68.67%和31.33%。该研究结果可为西南高山峡谷区未来生态环境建设提供科学依据,助力区域绿色可持续发展目标的实现。The southwest alpine canyon area is one of the most typical ecologically fragile areas in the world.It is a high demand to explore the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and its response to climate change and human activities in this region.The relative contributions of climate change and human activities can also be quantified for ecological restoration.Among them,the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)can be expected to serve as the potential indicator for the vegetation dynamic growth conditions,due to the high sensitivity to the vegetation.In this study,the NDVI dataset was collected to examine the spatiotemporal variations from 2000 to 2019.The future trends of NDVI were then predicted using the Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall significance test,and Hurst index in conjunction with the meteorological factor datasets.A correlation and residual analysis were finally conducted to explore the response of NDVI to climate change and human activities.The results showed as follows:1)The overall NDVI from 2000 to 2019 showed a fluctuating upward trend on the temporal scale,with a growth rate of 0.0046/a.The proportion of areas with an upward trend in the NDVI was 85.59%on the spatial scale,indicating significant vegetation recovery.However,some localized areas with a downward trend of NDVI accounted for 14.41%of the study area.The changing trend of NDVI continued to be predominantly upward in the future,where 82.34%of the study area was an upward trend,while 17.66%was a downward trend.A significant decrease in NDVI was found in the junction area between Changdu and Linzhi City in the Tibet Autonomous Region.There was also a risk of a further decrease in the NDVI in this area in the future.2)The temperature and solar radiation increased at the rates of 0.02℃/a and 6.92 MJ/(m^(2)·a),respectively,against the backdrop of regional climate warming and drying.But the precipitation decreased at a rate of−2.97 mm/a.The NDVI showed different responses to the various climatic factors,with a positive corre

关 键 词：遥感 植被 气候变化 人类活动 归一化差异植被指数 残差分析 西南高山峡谷区 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程]