碳中和目标下河北省土地利用碳排放格局演变与多情景模拟  

Evolution and multi scenario simulation of land use carbon emission pattern in Hebei Province under carbon neutral target

作　　者：武爱彬 赵艳霞[2] 郭小平[1] 陈辅国[3] WU Aibin;ZHAO Yanxia;GUO Xiaoping;CHEN Fuguo(School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Geographical Sciences Hebei Academy of Sciences/Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application,Shijiazhuang 050011,China;School of Land Science and Space Planning,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]河北省科学院地理科学研究所/河北省地理信息开发应用工程技术研究中心,石家庄050011 [3]河北地质大学土地科学与空间规划学院,石家庄050031

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2023年第14期261-270,F0003,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：河北省科学院基本科研业务费试点项目(2023PF04)。

摘　　要：分析和优化土地利用碳排放的格局演变可以为构建低碳排放的国土空间格局、助力碳中和战略目标实现提供参考和借鉴。该研究利用土地利用类型、能源消耗和农业活动碳排放系数法,基于GIS软件和PLUS模型核算了河北省2000—2020年土地利用直接碳排放、间接碳排放和净碳排放量及空间格局演变,模拟了自然发展、碳增汇优先发展和碳减排优先发展3种情景下河北省2030和2060年土地利用格局,并核算了生态系统增汇管理下不同情景土地利用碳排放量,结果表明:1)研究期间河北省土地利用直接碳排放量基本保持稳定,表现为碳吸收;土地利用间接碳排放量和土地利用净碳排放量呈现持续增加趋势,但增加速度明显下降。2)研究期间碳吸收区域和中净碳排放栅格单元空间上呈现收缩趋势,低净碳排放、中高净碳排放和高净碳排放栅格单元空间上呈现扩张趋势。碳吸收区域和低净碳排放栅格单元占比最大,但净碳排放主要产生在中高净碳排放区域和高净碳排放栅格单元。3)碳增汇优先发展情景下,林草地分布范围更广,在环渤海区域水域数量明显增加,土地利用直接碳排放绝对值最大。碳减排优先情景下石家庄、唐山、保定等大城市中心城区向外扩张的范围略有收缩,建设用地集约效果有一定体现,土地利用净碳排放值最小。碳减排是未来实现碳中和战略的根本。Carbon emission has been posed a great challenge on the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Low-carbon spatial pattern can be optimized to construct the national evolution of carbon emission from land use.In this study,the direct-,indirect-,and net carbon emissions were calculated for the land use in Hebei Province of China from 2000 to 2020,according to the carbon emission coefficients of land use types,energy consumption,and agricultural activities.The spatial pattern evolution was also achieved using GIS software and the PLUS model.Three development scenarios of land use patterns were simulated in the study area in 2030 and 2060.The carbon emissions were then calculated under different scenarios of ecosystem carbon sequestration management.The results were as follows:The direct carbon emissions from land use were remained basically stable at−2.43 million−2.5 million t/a in the study period,indicating the carbon absorption.Indirect-and net Carbon emissions from land use showed a continuous increasing trend ranging from 86.198 million t in 2000 to 267.142 million t in 2020.But the increasing speed decreased outstandingly,whereas,the net carbon emissions from land use depended mainly on the carbon emissions from energy consumption.There was the basically stable spatial distribution of grid units at the various levels of carbon emission.Specifically,the grid units of carbon absorption were concentrated in the Taihang Mountain area of Yanshan Mountain,while the grid units of low net carbon emission were distributed mainly in the southeast plain,the medium net carbon emission was found in the rural residential areas and the Bohai Rim region,and the high net carbon emission was in the surrounding cities of Shijiazhuang,Langfang,Baoding and some county central cities.There was a shrinking trend of space in the carbon absorption area and medium net carbon emission grid units.By contrast,an expanding trend in space was found in the low,medium high,and high net carbon emission grid units.The largest proport

关 键 词：土地利用 碳排放 模型 模拟 格局演变 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]