青藏高原中东部极端降水的时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in central and eastern Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：姚彦伶 王悦[2] 陈权亮 廖雨静 YAO Yanling;WANG Yue;CHEN Quanliang;LIAO Yujing(College of Atmospheric Science,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Plateau Atmospheric&Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225,China;Lightning Protection Technology Service Center of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110052,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [2]辽宁省防雷技术服务中心,辽宁沈阳110052

出　　处：《干旱气象》2023年第5期714-722,共9页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U20A2097、41875108)资助。

摘　　要：伴随全球气候变暖,极端降水事件明显增多,造成的灾害损失日益增加。青藏高原作为全球气候变化敏感区域,开展该区域极端降水事件时空变化特征研究有助于提升高原气候预测和防灾减灾能力。利用1961—2017年青藏高原中东部68个气象站逐日降水观测数据,通过百分位阈值法和线性倾向估计法,结合极端降水指数,分析该区域极端降水时空分布及变化趋势,探讨不同等级降水对总降水量的贡献。结果表明:青藏高原中东部地区各极端降水指数总体均由东南向西北递减,东南部是总降水和极端降水高值区,但该区域对整体降水量增加的影响较小。近57 a来,各极端降水指数整体均呈增加趋势,总降水量及其强度、强降水量、1日最大降水量和连续5 d最大降水量增加趋势显著,强降水量气候倾向率大于特强降水量,且强降水量占比明显增大,而特强降水量占比略有减小,表明强降水量增加对总降水量的贡献更大。强降水量和强降水、中雨日数与总降水量及其强度的变化趋势空间分布基本一致,区域东北部为显著增加区,中雨、强降水日数及雨量的增加导致高原中东部总降水量和极端降水量增加。With global warming,the extreme precipitation events increase significantly,leading to serious natural disasters.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a sensitive region to global climate change,and the analysis of extreme precipitation events in this region is conducive to providing theoretical reference for plateau climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction.Based on the daily precipitation data from 68 meteorological stations of central and eastern Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2017,the percentile threshold method,linear tendency estimation method and extreme precipitation index were used to comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in this region,and to explore the contribution of precipitation with different intensities to the total precipitation.The results show that the extreme precipitation indexes decreased from southeast to northwest in the central and eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a whole,and the total precipitation and extreme precipitation in the southeastern part of the plateau were high,but the influence of precipitation change in this area on the increase of total precipitation was small.In the past 57 years,the extreme precipitation indexes showed an overall increasing trend.Among them,total precipitation and its intensity,heavy precipitation,1-day maximum precipitation and continuous five-day maximum precipitation showed a significant increasing trend.The climatic tendency rate of heavy precipitation was greater than that of extremely heavy precipitation,and the proportion of heavy precipitation to total precipitation obviously increased,while the proportion of extremely heavy precipitation decreased slightly,which indicated that the contribution of heavy precipitation to total precipitation increase is greater than that of extremely heavy precipitation.The trend spatial distributions of heavy precipitation,heavy rainfall days and moderate rain days were basically agree with total precipitation and its intensity,and th

关 键 词：极端降水 极端降水指数 时空变化特征 青藏高原中东部 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P46