基于敏感度分析的非洲粮食生产对耕地资源变化的动态响应  

A study on dynamic response of grain production to changes of cultivated land resources in Africa based on sensitivity analysis

作　　者：解雪峰[1,2] 陈瑾 蒋国俊[1,2] 吴涛[1,2] 张建珍[1,2] XIE Xuefeng;CHEN Jin;JIANG Guojun;WU Tao;ZHANG Jianzhen(College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China;African Research and China-Africa Cooperation of Provincial and Ministerial Collaborative Innovation Center,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江金华321004 [2]浙江师范大学省部共建非洲研究与中非合作协同创新中心,浙江金华321004

出　　处：《浙江师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期442-450,共9页Journal of Zhejiang Normal University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42101068);浙江省软科学重点项目(2022C25004);浙江师范大学“教育部非洲研究与中非合作省部共建协同创新中心”委托课题(21XTFZ02A)。

摘　　要：耕地作为粮食生产的载体,耕地资源的变化也影响着粮食生产格局.以非洲有数据的53个国家为研究单元,基于耕地资源指数、重心模型和敏感度模型揭示非洲2000—2020年间耕地资源与粮食生产的时空变化规律,以及粮食生产对耕地资源变化的敏感性.结果发现:1)2000—2020年,非洲耕地面积不断扩大,人均耕地面积稍有下降,耕地资源集中分布在几内亚湾沿岸和非洲的东部地区,而北部与南部非洲地区耕地资源相对稀疏;2)近20年来,非洲粮食产量的分布格局与耕地资源分布基本一致,粮食总产量大幅提高,而受人口持续增加的影响,人均粮食产量基本持平;3)2000—2020年间,非洲粮食生产重心和耕地资源重心均向西北方向移动,粮食生产重心移动仍然受制于耕地面积变化的影响;4)研究期内非洲大部分国家粮食产量对耕地面积变化都表现出低度敏感性,粮食生产对耕地资源数量变化的依赖程度减弱.研究旨在为非洲粮食安全战略规划提供支撑.As the carrier of grain production,the variation of cultivated land resources also affected the pattern of grain production.53 countries with data in Africa were collected as the research unit,the temporal and spatial changes of cultivated land resources and food production in Africa from 2000 to 2020,and the sensitivity of food production to cultivated land resources changes were analyzed based on cultivated land resource index,gravity center model and sensitivity model.The results showed that:1)From 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land area in Africa continued to expand,and the cultivated land area per capita decreased slightly.The cultivated land resources were concentrated along the Gulf of Guinea and the eastern region of Africa,while the cultivated land resources in northern and southern Africa were relatively sparse.2)In the past 20 years,the distribution pattern of food production in Africa was basically consistent with the distribution of cultivated land resources.The total food production had increased significantly,while the per capita food production was basically flat due to the continuous increase of population.3)From 2000 to 2020,the gravity center of food production and cultivated land resources in Africa moved to the northwest,and the movement of the gravity center of food production had still been affected by the change of cultivated land area.4)During the study period,food production in most African countries showed low sensitivity to changes in cultivated land area,and the dependence of food production on changes in the quantity of cultivated land resources weakened.The investigation results could provide support for the strategic planning of food security in Africa.

关 键 词：耕地数量 粮食生产 时空变化 非洲 

分 类 号：F311[经济管理—产业经济]