基于CA-Morkov模型的杭州湾北岸上海段潮滩的动态演变分析  

Dynamic evolution analysis of the tidal flat in the Shanghai section of the north shore of Hangzhou bay based on CA-Markov model

作　　者：劳国栋 韩震[1,2] 张斌 刘立志 LAO Guodong;HAN Zhen;ZHANG Bin;LIU Lizhi(College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Estuarine and Oceanographic Mapping,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306 [2]上海河口海洋测绘工程技术研究中心,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2023年第3期98-107,共10页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：上海市海洋局科研专项(沪海科2019-03)。

摘　　要：杭州湾北岸上海段潮滩的利用和景观格局变化分析研究对上海市海岸带可持续利用具有重要意义。本文利用2013年、2015年、2017年和2019年杭州湾北岸高分一号卫星遥感数据,进行了潮滩信息的提取和动态变化分析,然后在此基础上,根据CA-Markov模型预测了研究区2021年、2023年和2025年潮滩的时空分布特征,利用扩展的Kappa系数进行了精度检验。研究结果表明:2013年、2015年、2017年和2019年的潮滩面积分别为8.894、9.592、10.731和9.230 km^(2),6年间面积增加了3.78%,浦东岸段潮滩有所淤积,奉贤岸段潮滩略有冲刷,金山岸段潮滩由于人类工程而大面积减少。预测2021年、2023年和2025年的潮滩面积分别为8.125、9.533和10.148 km^(2),浦东岸段潮滩逐年淤积,奉贤岸段潮滩有所冲刷,金山岸段潮滩面积逐渐减少。The analysis and research on the use of tidal flats in the Shanghai section of the north shore of Hangzhou Bay and the change of landscape pattern are of great significance to the sustainable use of the coastal zone in Shanghai.The remote sensing data of GF-1 satellite was used to extract the tidal flats information and to analyze the dynamic changes in the area on the north shore of Hangzhou Bay in 2013,2015,2017 and 2019.On this basis,the CA-Markov model was used to predict the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the tidal flats in the study area in 2021,2023,and 2025,and the extended Kappa coefficient was used for accuracy assessment.The results showed that the tidal flats areas in 2013,2015,2017 and 2019 were 8.894 km^(2),9.592 km^(2),10.731 km^(2)and 9.230 km^(2)respectively,and the area increased by 3.78%in 6 years.The tidal flats in Pudong district were deposited;the tidal flats in Fengxian district were slightly scoured;the tidal flats in Jinshan district were greatly reduced due to human engineering.The predicted tidal flats areas in 2021,2023,and 2025 would be 8.125 km^(2),9.533 km^(2)and 10.148 km^(2),respectively.The tidal flats in Pudong district could silt up year by year;the tidal flats in Fengxian district could be eroded.The tidal flats in Jinshan district could be gradually decreased.

关 键 词：CA-Morkov模型 遥感 杭州湾北岸上海段 潮滩 演变 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学]