摩托车交通事故严重程度多尺度空间异质性分析  

Multi-scale Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis of Motorcycle Traffic Accident Severity

作　　者：潘义勇[1] 缪炫烨 吴静婷 PAN Yiyong;MIAO Xuanye;WU Jingting(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第10期91-99,共9页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51508280)。

摘　　要：为探究摩托车交通事故严重程度影响因素的空间异质性及程度,基于多尺度地理加权回归模型进行分析。以摩托车交通事故严重程度为因变量,从人、车、路、环境等方面选取影响因素,利用影响因素的不同带宽值来量化空间异质性程度。研究结果表明:多尺度地理加权回归模型可以定量反映不同影响因素的空间异质性程度;空间异质性程度较大的影响因素中,多云的空间异质性程度最大,疲劳的空间异质性程度最小,而车速的作用强度最强,疲劳的作用强度最弱;车速和T型交叉口均正向影响摩托车交通事故严重程度,多云、涉及车辆数、市区等其他影响因素的回归系数存在正负差异,对摩托车交通事故严重程度的正/负向影响与地理位置有关。To investigate the spatial heterogeneity and degree of factors influencing the severity of motorcycle traffic accidents,a multi-scale geographically weighted regression model was used to analyze.Taking the severity of motorcycle traffic accidents as the dependent variable,the influencing factors were selected from aspects such as people,vehicle,road and environment.The degree of spatial heterogeneity was quantified by use of different bandwidth values of influencing factors.The research results show that the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model can quantify the degree of spatial heterogeneity of different influencing factors.Among the influencing factors with a large degree of spatial heterogeneity,the cloudiness has the greatest degree of spatial heterogeneity,and the fatigue has the least degree of spatial heterogeneity.The effect of vehicle speed is the strongest,while the effect of fatigue is the weakest.In addition,both vehicle speed and T-intersections positively affect the severity of motorcycle traffic accidents.There were positive and negative differences in the regression coefficients for the remaining influencing factors such as cloudiness,the number of vehicles involved and urban areas,which means the positive/negative effect on the severity of motorcycle traffic accidents is related to geographic location.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通安全 摩托车交通事故 空间异质性 多尺度地理加权回归 空间尺度 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]