市场导向型低碳政策可以促进企业出口吗——来自碳排放权交易政策的证据  

Can Market-oriented Low-carbon Policies Promote Enterprise Exports-Evidencefrom Carbon Emission Trading Policies

作　　者：刘铠豪 佟家栋[2] 申雅茹 LIU Kaihao;TONG Jiadong;SHEN Yaru

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第9期88-105,共18页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“出口扩张与健康:理论分析与中国经验”(71903111);山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)重大项目“数字经济促进山东省制造业绿色低碳高质量发展的内在机制及政策研究”(2023RZA02015);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“环境规制政策能否助力‘健康中国·健康山东’?——来自‘两控区’政策的证据”(19CQXJ16);山东省高等学校“青创团队计划”团队(2022RW002)。

摘　　要：本文利用碳排放权交易政策这一准自然实验,基于2003—2020年A股上市公司数据并采用双重差分法,系统探讨了市场导向型低碳政策对企业出口的影响。研究结果表明:碳排放权交易政策显著增加了企业出口倾向、扩大了企业出口规模,即显著促进了企业出口,这一结论在预期效应检验、安慰剂检验、更换估计方法、匹配分析、排除同期其他政策的潜在干扰等条件下依旧稳健;影响机制分析显示,碳排放权交易政策通过促进企业绿色技术创新和缓解企业融资约束进而影响了企业出口;异质性检验结果显示,碳排放权交易政策对企业出口的影响在不同地区、不同行业、不同企业之间存在一定的差异。本文依据结论,提出了逐步提高地区市场化程度、运用法治方式优化营商环境、适当降低行业集中度和切实提高公司治理水平的政策建议。This paper utilizes the carbon emission trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment and data from A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2020,also employs a difference-in-differences method to systematically investigate the impact of market-oriented low-carbon policies on enterprise exports.The research finds that carbon emission trading policies significantly increase enterprise export propensity and expand the scale of enterprise exports,thus significantly promoting enterprise exports.This conclusion remains robust under conditions such as tests for anticipatory effects,placebo tests,alternative estimation methods,matching analysis,and the elimination of potential interference from other policies during the sample period.Mechanism analysis reveals that carbon emission trading policies influence enterprise exports by promoting green technological innovation and alleviating enterprise financing constraints.Heterogeneity tests show that the impact of carbon emission trading policies on enterprise exports varies among different regions,industries,and companies.Based on the findings above,the paper provides policy recommendations,including gradually increasing the level of regional marketization,optimizing the business environment through the law,appropriately reducing industry concentration,and effectively enhancing corporate governance.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易政策 企业出口倾向 企业出口规模 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]