“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家债务风险的影响研究——基于国际直接投资视角  

A Study on the Impact of"the Belt and Road"Initiative on Debt Risk in the Countries along the Route-Based on the Perspective of International Direct Investment

作　　者：赵永超 蓝庆新[2] ZHAO Yongchao;LAN Qingxin

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学国际贸易学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第9期123-140,共18页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“‘一带一路’框架下我国基础设施投资对东道国债务风险的抑制效应研究”。

摘　　要：文章从国际直接投资视角重新审视“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家债务风险的影响,重点探究了我国对外直接投资对沿线国家债务风险的影响机理、特征与机制。在理论分析的基础上,文章利用2014—2021年共42个沿线国家相关数据进行实证分析,验证了理论假说。研究发现:我国在“一带一路”直接投资对沿线国家债务风险总体表现出抑制效应,属于“雪中送炭”,而非“雪上加霜”。债务风险抑制过程表现出“滞后→急释→缓释”的动态非线性特征,且基础设施环境的改善是发挥抑制效应的重要渠道,同样表现出非线性传导特征。实证结果通过了相关稳健性检验,并发现对于不同债务风险水平及所属不同地区的样本国家会产生异质性影响。文章不仅丰富了我国对外直接投资研究,还从根本上驳斥“债务陷阱论”,缓解了沿线国家“债务焦虑”,为我国企业对外投资提供了事实依据与决策参考,助力共建“一带一路”倡议的高质量发展。This article reexamines the impact of"the Belt and Road"initiative on debt risk in the countries along the route from the perspective of international direct investment,and focuses on exploring the mechanisms and characteristics of China's outward direct investment of the issue.Based on theoretical analysis,the article conducts empirical analysis using relevant data from 42 countries along the route from 2014 to 2021.The research finds that China's direct investment generally exhibits a restraining effect on debt risk in the countries along the route,which can be described as a"helping hand"rather than exacerbating the situation.The process of debt risk restraint demonstrates a dynamic nonlinear feature of lag→rapid release→gradual release,and the improvement of infrastructure environment is an important channel for the restraining effect in a nonlinear transmission manner.Empirical results pass robustness tests and reveal heterogeneous impacts on sample countries with different debt risk levels and in different regions.This article enriches research on China's outward direct investment,also fundamentally refutes the"debt trap theory"to alleviating"debt anxiety"in the countries along the route.Besides,this study provides factual evidence and decision-making references for Chinese enterprises'overseas investments,contributing to the high-quality development of"the Belt and Road"initiative.

关 键 词：“一带一路”直接投资 债务风险 基础设施环境 抑制效应 动态非线性特征 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]