霸权遏制、实力认知与崛起国回应策略选择  

Hegemonic Containment,Power Cognition and Rising State's Choice of Response Strategy

作　　者：周子淙 Zhou Zicong(School of Political Science and Public Administration,Shandong University)

机构地区：[1]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院,青岛266237

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2023年第10期134-155,160,共23页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：权力转移过程充斥着霸权国与崛起国之间的各种矛盾与冲突。为了护持霸权,霸权国往往会对崛起国采取不同程度的遏制,在此背景下研究崛起国如何回应霸权国遏制具有一定的必要性和现实性。影响崛起国对霸权国回应的两个核心变量分别为霸权国对崛起国的遏制程度和崛起国对自身实力的认知。根据霸权国遏制程度的高低和崛起国对自身实力判断的强弱,可以将崛起国的回应划分为竞争型回应、畏缩型回应、过激型回应和收敛型回应四种类型,崛起国会分别采取对抗和让步混合策略、极端对抗策略、被动让步策略和主动让步策略。通过分析20世纪30-40年代的日美关系、20世纪70-80年代的日美关系、第二次世界大战前德英关系以及俾斯麦时期普鲁士统一过程中的英普关系,可以检验四种回应类型及其策略机制。无论在霸权国何种程度的遏制下,崛起国若想成功达成既定战略目标,都需要从自身实际能力出发,根据现实情况采取回应策略。The process of power transition is filled with various contradictions and conflicts between hegemonic states and rising states.In order to protect hegemony,hegemonic countries often resort to varying degrees of containment against rising powers.In this context,the research on how the rising state responds to hegemonic containment is important and necessary.As for the rising state's response to the hegemonic state,there are two core variables,namely,the degree to which the hegemonic state restrains the rising state,and the rising state's perception of its own power.According to the containment degree of the hegemonic state and the rising state's perception of its own power,the response types of the rising state can be divided into competitive response,submissive response,extreme response and restrained response,which correspond to the mixed confrontation and concession strategy,extreme confrontation strategy,passive concession strategy,and active concession strategy,respectively.By analyzing the relationship between Japan and the United States in the 1930s to 1940s,the relationship between Japan and the United States in the 1970s to 1980s,the relationship between the Third Reich of Germany and Britain before World War Ⅰ,and the Anglo-Prussian relationship during the unification process of Prussia,four types of response and their strategic mechanisms were tested.Regardless of the degree of containment by hegemonic powers,if rising countries try to successfully achieve their established strategic goals,they need to proceed from their actual capabilities and implement response strategies based on the actual situation.

关 键 词：遏制战略 崛起战略 权力转移 战略竞争 大国关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]