CPI与PPI分化及其规律:一个结构化的理论解释  

Divergence between CPI and PPI:A Structural Theoretical Explanation

作　　者：王振霞[1] 闫冰倩 王朝阳[2] 张昊[1] WANG Zhen-xia;YAN Bing-qian;WANG Chao-yang;ZHANG Hao(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2023年第9期5-22,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下我国区域真实能源利用率与减排路径研究”(批准号71903195);国家社会科学基金一般项目“发挥居民消费推动传统产业转型升级的基础性作用研究”(批准号20BJY101)。

摘　　要：近年来中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)与生产者价格指数(PPI)的走势出现了明显、持续的分化,加大了宏观调控难度。本文基于多生产阶段的一般均衡模型框架,为CPI和PPI走势分化提供了结构性的理论解释,即在制造业生产率明显高于服务业的情况下,人口红利消失导致劳动力成本上升,由此带来的CPI上涨的幅度高于PPI上涨幅度。这能够更好地解释中国CPI与PPI分化的时点。CPI中服务业占比不断上升,进一步推动了二者之间的分化甚至背离。CPI与PPI走势的分化是经济社会发展到一定程度后的规律性特征,也得到国际数据的初步验证。宏观价格调控的思路和政策应作出调整,以适应CPI与PPI走势分化的常态。Since around 2011,the trends of China's consumer price index(CPI)and producer price index(PPI)have started to be divergent.The clear and sustained divergence increased the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation and control.The continuous divergence between CPI and PPI has attracted widespread attention.The related academic research and debates mainly focus on three aspects.First,is the divergence between CPI and PPI a short-term phenomenon or a long-term trend,and what is the theoretical mechanism and practical basis behind it?Second,why did this continued divergence begin around 2011?Third,if the divergence between CPI and PPI is a long-term trend,what are its policy implications?This article aims to answer these three questions.This paper first provides a theoretical explanation of this divergence by constructing a theoretical analytical framework.Then,through simulation analysis and empirical model,the timing and influencing factors of the divergence between CPI and PPI are verified.The results show that when the manufacturing productivity is significantly higher than that of the service industry,the disappearance of the demographic dividend leads to an increase in labor costs.As a result,CPI increases more than that of PPI,which is the fundamental reason for the divergence.At the same time,the rising proportion of the service sector in the CPI has further promoted the divergence between the two.This paper further analyzes other factors,including the length of production fragmentation and international commodity price fluctuations.The results show that the length of production segmentation has a certain explanatory power on the declining correlation between CPI and PPI,but it cannot explain the time point of the divergence between CPI and PPI.The rise in international commodity prices leads to an increase in PPI,which exceeds that of CPI,and it contributes to easing the divergence between the two to a certain extent.The empirical evidence of cross-country panel data also shows that the increase in labor prices

关 键 词：居民消费价格指数 生产者价格指数 劳动供给 服务业占比 投入产出分析 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]