弱信号环境下情报感知方法框架研究  

Research on the Framework of Intelligence Perception Method in Weak Signal Environment

作　　者：张慧玲 许海云 王超[2] 陈亮[3] 李姝影[4] 杨俊浩 Zhang Huiling

机构地区：[1]太原市图书馆,山西太原030024 [2]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255049 [3]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038 [4]中国科学院成都文献情报中心,四川成都610213

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第11期9-19,共11页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于弱信号时效网络演化分析的变革性科技创新主题早期识别方法研究”(项目编号:72274113);山东省自然科学基金面上项目“基于弱信号分析的变革性创新主题早期识别方法研究”(项目编号:ZR202111130115);山东省泰山学者工程(项目编号:tsqn202103069)和中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(项目编号:2022173)的成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]科技情报早期弱信号隐蔽性与不确定性较强,定性与定量方法结合的情报感知成为探究未来科技不确定程度与影响力程度的重要方式。文章尝试提出弱信号环境下科技情报感知方法框架,推进科技情报前瞻识别与预测。[方法/过程]首先,归纳、辨析情报感知的相关概念、感知阶段及其特征。然后,基于情报感知过程视角,针对已有定性与定量分析方法,分析不同阶段的情报感知识别方法及其优势与不足,总结现有方法存在的问题。[结果/结论]提出“弱信号识别—意义建构—预测与响应”闭环迭代的早期情报感知框架。框架结合了理论与应用,包含3个层级,每个层级包括相应的任务以及开展每个任务对应的方法。此外,提出弱信号环境下早期情报感知“沙漏模型”,用于对弱信号进行多级筛选与甄别。文章提出的弱信号环境下科技情报感知方法框架可以为早期科技情报感知提供理论与方法的综合参考。[Purpose/significance]The concealment and uncertainty of weak signals in the early stages of scientific and technical intelligence are pronounced,making the integration of qualitative and quantitative methods in intelligence perception a crucial approach for investigating the degree of uncertainty and the impact of the future.This paper proposes a framework for scientific and technical intelligence perception in a weak signal environment,thereby advancing the early identification and prediction of scientific and technical intelligence.[Method/process]Initially,this paper synthesizes and analyzes the relevant concepts,perception stages,and characteristics of intelligence perception.Subsequently,adopting a process perspective,combine extant qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to examine the intelligence perception recognition methods at different stages,along with their respective advantages and limitations.The existing issues with current methods are also summarized.[Result/conclusion]A closed-loop iterative framework for early intelligence perception is presented,encompassing“weak signal recognition-meaning construction-prediction and response-assessment”.This framework integrates theory and application and comprises three levels,each involving specific tasks and corresponding methodologies.Additionally,a“sandglass model”for early intelligence perception in a weak signal environment is proposed,facilitating multi-level screening and selecting of weak signals.The method framework for scientific and technical intelligence perception in a weak signal environment,as proposed in this paper,can serve as a comprehensive reference of theoretical and practical for future early intelligence perception.

关 键 词：情报感知 弱信号 早期信号 新兴技术 科技情报 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]