基于结构模型—词频计算的国防科技战略情报分析方法  

National Defense Science and Technology Strategic Intelligence Analysis Method Based on Structure Model and Word Frequency Calculation

作　　者：吴集[1] 刘书雷[1] 杨筱[1] Wu Ji

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学国防科技战略研究智库,湖南长沙532200

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第11期66-72,共7页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“社会主义市场经济条件下国防科技攻关新型举国体制研究”的成果,项目编号:2020-SKJJ-A-010。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]针对传统国防科技发展态势分析定性为主的不足,提出一种综合经典结构分析和自然语言处理(NLP)文本计量的国防科技战略情报分析方法。[方法/过程]首先,综述国防科技战略情报分析方法研究;其次,采用PEST“钻石”结构化模型分析主要国家国防科技战略政策调整动因;再次,解构主要国家国防科技战略政策文本,并运用NLP文本计量发掘国防科技发展重点热点;最后,结合定性定量研判辨析国防科技发展基本态势。[结果/结论]对2018—2022年主要国家发布的50个国防科技战略政策文本进行量化分析,对主要国家国防科技发展策略、高新科技领域重点进行研判。结果表明,文章构建的方法框架能够为认识和研判国防科技战略情报动向提供新的视角。[Purpose/significance]In view of limitations of traditional qualitative analysis of the trend of defense science and technology developments,this paper presents a strategic information analysis method of defense science and technology based on classical structure analysis and NLP text measurement.[Method/process]Firstly conduct the study of strategic intelligence analysis methods of national defense science and technology;then use PEST“diamond”structural model to analyze the drivers of major national defense technology strategy policy adjustment;then explore the key hotspots of national defense science and technology by deconstructing the main national defense science and technology strategy policy;and finally analyze the basic situation of national defense technology development based on qualitative and quantitative analysis.[Result/conclusion]The above method is adopted to make a quantitative analysis of 50 defense science and technology strategic policies issued by major countries from 2018 to 2022,and to analyze the development strategies of major defense science and technology and the key areas of high-tech fields.The results show that the method framework can provide a new perspective on the trend of defense science and technology.

关 键 词：国防科技 战略情报 分析方法 结构模型 词频计算 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]