西藏粮食主产区1980—2021年干湿气候变化特征及主要影响因子分析  

Analysis of Dry and Wet Climate Change Characteristics and Main Influencing Factors in Main Grain Producing Areas of Tibet from 1980 to 2021

作　　者：珠杰桑布 张存杰 扎西普尺 白玛德吉 尼玛拉姆 平措次旺 ZHUJIE Sangbu;ZHANG Cunjie;ZHAXI Puchi;BAIMA Deji;NIMA Lamu;PINGCUO Ciwang(Nanmulin Meteorological Bureau of Tibet Autonomous Region,Shigatse,Tibet 857000;National Climate Center,Beijing 100089;Shigatse Agricultural Science Research and Promotion Center,Shigatse,Tibet 857000;Dingri County Meteorological Bureau of Tibet Autonomous Region,Shigatse,Tibet 857000)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区南木林县气象局,西藏日喀则857000 [2]国家气候中心,北京100089 [3]日喀则市农牧业科学研究推广中心,西藏日喀则857000 [4]西藏自治区定日县气象局,西藏日喀则857000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第28期75-82,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：西藏自治区自然科学基金项目“南木林县‘艾玛2万亩马铃薯种植区’气象服务保障及气候因子研究”(XZ202001ZR0082G);国家重点研发计划“气候极端事件风险防范决策支持系统研制”(2020YFA0608203);西藏自治区科技计划重点研发“气候变化背景下西藏日喀则地区主要农区作物生长季干湿格影响因素分析及未来气候情景下的预估和应对”(CGZH2024000002)。

摘　　要：基于西藏南部7个气象站点1980—2021年(4—10月)逐日气象观测数据,应用气候倾向率、MannKendal检验、Morlet小波分析法、GIS混合插值法、皮尔逊相关系数、贡献率分析等方法,研究西藏粮食主产区生长季干湿指数(AI)时空变化特征及影响因子。结果表明,在西藏粮主产区AI多年平均值为1.7,属于亚干旱区,总体呈递减(变湿)的变化趋势(-0.036/10 a)。不同区域线性减小趋势有差异,拉孜县一带最为显著(-0.26/10 a)。AI没有发生明显的突变情况,且存在24、6年长、中期震荡特征;空间分布不均,并存在“干燥区范围缩小,湿润区范围扩张”的特征。AI的主要气候影响因子在不同区域的贡献率表现不一。总体而言,贡献程度定量后为降水量(34.9%)>相对湿度(28.4%)>日照(19.9%)>最高气温(12.4%)。Based on the daily meteorological observation data of seven meteorological stations in southern Tibet from 1980 to 2021(April-October),the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of dry and wet index(AI)in the growing season of major grain producing areas in Tibet were studied by using climate propensity rate,Mann-Kendal test,Morlet wavelet analysis,GIS hybrid interpolation method,Pearson correlation coefficient,contribution rate analysis and other methods.The results showed that the average AI in the main grain producing areas of Tibet was 1.7,which belonged to the semi-arid area,and the overall trend was decreasing(humidifying)(-0.036/10 a).The linear decreasing trend was different in different regions,and the area around Lazi County was the most significant(-0.26/10 a).AI had no obvious mutation,and had long and medium term oscillation characteristics of 24 a,6 a.The spatial distribution was uneven,and had the characteristics of‘shrinking the dry area and expanding the wet area’.the contribution rate of the main climate influencing factors of AI varied in different regions.In general,the contribution degree after quantification was as follows:precipitation(34.9%)>relative humidity(28.4%)>sunshine(19.9%)>maximum temperature(12.4%).

关 键 词：西藏 主产区 气候变化 干燥度指数 贡献率 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]