基于LSTM模型的四川省建筑业电气化率预测研究  

Prediction on Electrification Rate of Construction Industry inSichuan Province Based on LSTM Model

作　　者：魏阳 胡彭超 刘洪利 陈玉敏 刘雪原 刘畅 WEI Yang;HU Pengchao;LIU Hongli;CHEN Yumin;LIU Xueyuan;LIU Chang(State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Research Institute,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China;Sichuan Construction Engineering Fire Protection and Survey Design Technology Center,Chengdu 610042,Sichuan,China;Sichuan New Power System Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610095,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院,四川成都610041 [2]四川省建设工程消防和勘察设计技术中心,四川成都610042 [3]四川省新型电力系统研究院有限公司,四川成都610095

出　　处：《四川电力技术》2023年第5期56-61,共6页Sichuan Electric Power Technology

基　　金：四川省科技计划资助项目(2023NSFSC1987)。

摘　　要：伴随着建筑总量的不断攀升,建筑电气化已经成为中国建筑业实现“双碳”目标的关键所在。针对现有文献较少关注建筑电气化率测算和预测的不足,结合建筑电气化率的定义,从建筑业终端电气化率和建筑业终端运行电气化率两个方面构建了测算公式。在完成2010—2020年四川省建筑电气化率测算的基础上,运用长短期记忆模型,对2021—2030年四川省建筑电气化率进行了预测。研究结果可为四川省建筑业电气化水平的评估及其“双碳”方案的实现提供有益参考。With the continuous increase in the total number of buildings,electrification has become the key to achieving the"dual carbon"goal for construction industry in China.In view of less attention paid to the calculation and prediction of electrification rate of construction industry in the existing literature,the calculation formulas based on the definition of building electrification rate is constructed from two aspects:the terminal electrification rate of construction industry and the terminal operation electrification rate of construction industry.Based on the calculation of electrification rate of construction industry from 2010 to 2020 in Sichuan province,the long short-term memory(LSTM)model is used to predict its electrification rate from 2021 to 2030.The above research can provide useful references for the evaluation of electrification level of construction industry in Sichuan province and the implementation of"dual carbon"plan.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 建筑业 电气化率 LSTM模型 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]