河北沙河地区农作物生长季降水变化与旱涝分析  

Analysis of Precipitation Changes and Drought-Flood Conditionsduring Crop Growing Season in Shahe County, Hebei Province

作　　者：李瑞苏 杨丽娜 杨翠丽 武兰芳 Li Ruisu;Yang Lina;Yang Cuili;Wu Lanfang(Meteorological Bureau of Shahe City,Shahe,Hebei 054100;Xingtai Meteorological Service,Xingtai,Hebei 054000)

机构地区：[1]河北省沙河市气象局,河北沙河054100 [2]邢台市气象局,河北邢台054000

出　　处：《宁夏农林科技》2023年第6期59-62,共4页Journal of Ningxia Agriculture and Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：科技部农业科技成果转化项目“农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用”(05ESN217400412)。

摘　　要：【目的】探明沙河地区农作物生长季降水量的变化及其满足度与干旱风险度,为沙河地区农业产业结构调整提供参考。【方法】利用降水和气温数据,采用气候诊断分析方法,运用水平衡及旱涝指数方法,研究农作物生长季需水与降水的平衡关系,以及农作物生长季旱、涝特征。【结果】沙河地区农作物生长季降水量呈弱增加趋势,倾向率为4.972 mm/10 a;水平衡呈增加趋势;旱涝指数呈增大趋势,气候湿润程度朝着湿润方向发展。播种期—苗期中旱、大旱出现频率达40.0%,成熟期中旱、重旱出现频率达62.0%;旺长期以涝为主,中涝、重涝出现频率达30.0%;农作物生长季中涝、重涝出现频率为10.0%,中旱、重旱概率为14.0%。【结论】沙河地区旱、涝灾害同时存在,旱灾存在减弱的趋势,但干旱对农业生产仍然影响较大,应加强完善灾害预警平台建设。[Objective]This study aims to investigate the variations in precipitation and evaluate the satisfaction and drought risk during the crop growing season in Shahe region,providing reference for the adjustment of agricultural industry structure in the region.[Method]By analyzing precipitation and temperature data using climate diagnostic analysis methods,as well as employing water balance and drought-flood index methods,the study examines the relationship between crop water requirement and precipitation balance,as well as the characteristics of drought and flood during the crop growing season.[Result]The results showed that the precipitation during the crop growing season in Shahe region exhibited a weak increasing trend,with a tendency rate of 4.972 mm/10 a.The water balance showed an increasing trend,while the drought-flood index indicated an increasing trend,suggesting a trend towards a more humid climate.The frequencies of drought and severe drought during the seeding to seedling stage reached 40.0%,and the frequencies of drought and severe drought during the maturity stage reached 62.0%.The main occurrence of flooding was during the vigorous growth stage,with frequencies of moderate flooding and severe flooding reaching 30.0%.The frequencies of moderate flooding and severe flooding during the crop growing season were 10.0%,while the probabilities of moderate drought and severe drought were 14.0%.[Conclusion]Both drought and flood disasters exist in Shahe region,and while drought disasters show a weakening trend,they still have a significant impact on agricultural production.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the construction of disaster warning platforms to better mitigate drought and flood risks.

关 键 词：农作物 生长季 降水量 水平衡 旱涝指数 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S423[农业科学—植物保护]