“存亡危机”及相关事态与日本对台政策取向  

“Survival Crisis”and Related Situations and Japan’s Policy Orientation towards Taiwan region

作　　者：吕耀东[1,2] 鞠佳颖 Lyu Yaodong;Ju Jiaying(School of International Politics and Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Japanese Studies,CASS)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院日本研究所

出　　处：《和平与发展》2023年第5期128-149,177,共23页Peace and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“日本海洋战略及政策研究”(项目编号:20FJB006);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地“十四五”重大项目“国际秩序大变革背景下的东北亚相关国家战略调整研究”(项目编号:22JJD810033);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“战后日本国际战略及政策研究”(项目编号:2023RBSB01)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自2015年“存亡危机事态”概念的提出,到2021年宣称“台湾有事”会引发“存亡危机事态”,日本从国内立法角度为介入台湾问题做了一系列准备工作。“存亡危机事态”作为一个动态化的变量,当其事态尚未达到严重程度时,日本政府将其认定为“重要影响事态”;当其事态严重时,又将其认定为“武力攻击事态”。针对“台湾有事”,日本政府倾向以“存亡危机事态”“重要影响事态”或“武力攻击事态”予以认定,但受政治右倾化、国家利益导向、日美同盟等因素影响,又往往会出现恣意解释“事态”的倾向,实质是为其武力介入台海寻找最有利的说辞,也是为其借台湾问题随美遏华制造借口。日本通过舆论造势、加强立法、强化日美同盟机制等举措,加大对台湾问题的介入力度,势必会严重冲击中日关系和地区安全。From 2015,when the concept of“survival crisis situation”was put forward,to 2021,when Japan declared that“something happening to Taiwan”would lead to a“survival crisis situation”,Japan has made a lot of preparation to intervene in the Taiwan question from the perspective of domestic legislation.As a dynamic variable,the“survival crisis situation”is regarded by the Japanese government as a“situation with important impact”when the situation is not very serious;and when the situation is serious,it is identified as a“situation involving armed attacks”.In response to the“Taiwan crisis”,the Japanese government tends to identify the“situation”as the“survival crisis situation”,the“situation with important impact”or the“situation involving armed attacks”,but under the influence of factors such as the political shift to the right,the orientation of national interests,and the Japan-US alliance,the Japanese government tends to arbitrarily interpret the“situation”,which is essential to find the most favorable justification for its armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait.It is also a pretext for it to follow the US to suppress China on the Taiwan question .Japan’s increased involvement in the Taiwan Question through public opinion campaigning,strengthening domestic legislation,enhancing the Japan-US alliance mechanism and other measures will inevitably have a serious impact on China-Japan relations and regional security.

关 键 词：台湾问题 对台政策 中国台湾有事 日美同盟 中日关系 

分 类 号：D813[政治法律—国际关系]