耕地—粮食—人口系统对长武县粮食安全的影响  

STUDY ON THE COUPLED RELATIONSHIP OF ARABLE LAND-FOOD-POPULATION SYSTEM AND THE IMPACT OF FOOD SECURITY IN CHANGWU COUNTY

作　　者：郑伟浩 何锋[2] 蒋逸霞 ZHENG Wei-hao;HE Feng;JIANG Yi-xia(School of Finance,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,Yunnan,China;School of Logistics and Management Engineering,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院,云南昆明650221 [2]云南财经大学物流与管理工程学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2023年第3期27-32,共6页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“西南地区多重脆弱条件下农村闲置宅基地有效利用创新模式研究”(22XJY024);云南省科技厅面上项目“云南地质灾害贝叶斯风险定量评估模型研究”(202101AT070562)。

摘　　要：应用蒙特卡罗算法,以陕西省长武县为例,从县域尺度对位于黄土高原地区的耕地、人口、粮食系统动态及粮食安全状况进行了研究,分析了反映粮食安全状况的耕地压力指数,并对未来耕地压力指数变化进行了模拟预测。研究结果表明:1990年以来,长武县耕地数量持续减少,人口不断增加,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,2001年以前耕地压力指数基本在1左右浮动;蒙特卡罗算法对1990—2019年耕地压力指数的历史模拟值及其范围可以较好地涵盖实际值及其变化范围,因此对耕地压力指数进行预测具有较好的精确度;预测结果表明2020年及2030年该地区将面临更加严重的粮食安全问题。为防止耕地压力指数扩大,需要依靠增加投入和科技进步提高耕地生产率,以减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全。This paper applies the Monte Carlo algorithm to study the dynamics of arable land,population,food system and food security situation in Changwu County,Shaanxi Province,which is located in the Loess Plateau region,from the county scale,analyses the arable land pressure index reflecting the food security situation,and simulates and predicts the change of the arable land pressure index in the future.The results of the study show that:since 1990,the amount of arable land in Changwu County has continued to decrease and the population has continued to increase,but due to the increasing productivity of arable land,the arable land pressure index basically floated around 1 before 2001;the historical simulated values of the arable land pressure index and their ranges of the Monte Carlo algorithm for the period of 1990-2019 can cover the actual values and their ranges of change better,so the arable land pressure index is The prediction has good accuracy;the prediction results indicate that the region will face more serious food security problems in 2020 and 2030.In order to prevent the expansion of the arable land pressure index,it is necessary to rely on increased inputs and scientific and technological progress to improve the productivity of arable land in order to reduce the pressure on arable land and ensure food security.

关 键 词：耕地—粮食—人口系统 耦合关系 粮食安全 长武县 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]