6种复种模式在宁夏引黄灌区推广的气候可行性研究  

Climatic Feasibility Research on the Popularization of Six Multiple Cropping Systems in Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area

作　　者：朱永宁 李阳 李剑萍 南学军 杜宏娟 葛静 马阳 李建秀 杨松 ZHU Yongning;LI Yang;LI Jianping;NAN Xuejun;DU Hongjuan;GE Jing;MA Yang;LI Jianxiu;YANG Song(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions,China Meteorological Administration,Yinchuan 750002;Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Yinchuan 750002;School of Agriculture,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021;Wuzhong Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center,Wuzhong,Ningxia 751100;Experimental Station of Agricultural Meteorology in Bayannaoer City,Linhe,Inner Mongolia 015000)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川750002 [2]宁夏气象科学研究所,银川750002 [3]宁夏大学农学院,银川750021 [4]吴忠市农业技术推广服务中心,宁夏吴忠751100 [5]内蒙古巴彦淖尔市农业气象试验站,内蒙古临河015000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第29期93-102,共10页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国气候变化专项“河套灌区复种制度推广的气候可行性研究”(CCSF202026);第四批宁夏青年科技人才托举工程项目“枸杞主要发育期自动识别技术研究”(TJGC2019058);宁夏重点研发计划(引才专项)项目“气候变化背景下中国西北季节连旱评价和预估系统研究”(2020BEB04028);宁夏重点研发计划项目“一年两熟制麦玉生长特性及促早绿色高效关键技术研究与示范”(2023BCF01018-01)。

摘　　要：为了探讨宁夏引黄灌区气候资源变化特征及不同复种模式的气候资源利用率及农业气象灾害频率,进而精准研究气候变化背景下不同复种模式在引黄灌区推广的气候可行性,为引黄灌区优化作物布局结构、提高气候资源利用率提供理论支撑。2019—2020年,在宁夏吴忠市对冬小麦—水稻、冬小麦—青贮玉米、冬牧草—水稻、春小麦—饲草大麦、饲草大麦—向日葵和冬牧草-青贮玉米6种复种模式开展大田交叉试验,以气象数据、田间试验数据、社会经济数据为基础,分析各种复种模式的气候资源利用率及农业气象灾害发生频率,探究宁夏引黄灌区不同复种模式大面积推广的气候可行性。结果表明:1971—2020年,宁夏引黄灌区热量资源显著增加,日照资源和降水资源变化不明显,复种模式的光能利用率和光温资源利用率分别比现有单种模式的高0.16%、18.66%。结合气候资源保证率和农业气象灾害(冬小麦/冬牧草越冬冻害、小麦干热风、水稻低温冷害,青贮玉米高温热害/倒伏)发生频率,得到6种复种模式在不同区域的可推广性:冬牧草—水稻适合在贺兰、银川、利通区和大武口区推广,在惠农、陶乐、永宁、中宁、平罗和青铜峡可小范围试种;冬小麦—水稻可在利通区推广,在青铜峡、中宁、永宁和银川小范围试种;冬小麦—青贮玉米适合在利通区、青铜峡和中宁可推广,永宁和银川可将这种模式作为“两年三熟制”的选择;春小麦—饲草大麦、饲草大麦—向日葵和冬牧草—青贮玉米在宁夏引黄灌区各地均可推广。气候变暖为宁夏引黄灌区开展复种提供了有利条件,现有的单种模式的光能利用率和光温资源利用率平均值均低于复种模式,各地发生农业气象灾害频率不同,应因地制宜地推广复种模式,提高气候资源利用率和单位面积产出。To explore the change characteristics of climate resources,the utilization rate of climate resources and the frequency of agrometeorological disasters of different multiple cropping models in the Yellow River irrigation area of Ningxia,and then precisely study the climatic feasibility of the promotion of different multiple cropping models in the Yellow River irrigation area under the background of climate change,so as to provide theoretical support for optimizing the crop layout structure and improving the utilization rate of climate resources in the Yellow River irrigation area,six field crossover experiments of multiple cropping of winter wheat—rice,winter wheat—silage corn,winter herbage—rice,spring wheat—forage barley,forage barley—sunflower and winter herbage—silage corn,were carried out from 2019 to 2020 in Wuzhong City,Ningxia.Based on meteorological data,field experiment data and socio-economic data,the utilization rate of climate resources and the frequency of agrometeorological disasters of various multiple cropping modes were analyzed to explore the climatic feasibility of large-scale extension of different multiple cropping models in the irrigated area of Yellow River in Ningxia.The results showed that the heat resources increased significantly,while the sunshine resources and precipitation resources did not change significantly during 1971 to 2020.The light energy utilization rate and light temperature resources utilization rate of the complex mode were 0.16%and 18.66%higher than the existing single mode,respectively.Combined with the guarantee rate of climate resources and the occurrence frequency of agrometeorological disasters(winter wheat/winter herbage overwintering freezing damage,dry hot air of wheat,low temperature freezing damage of rice,high temperature heat damage/lodging of silage corn),we got the scalability of six multiple cropping models in different regions:winter herbage—rice was suitable for promotion in Helan,Yinchuan,Litong District and Dawukou District,and could be

关 键 词：宁夏引黄灌区 复种 保证率 农业气象灾害 气候可行性 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]