基于傅里叶级数残差修正的灰色-马尔科夫电源结构预测研究  

Research on Grey Markov Power Supply Structure Prediction Based on Fourier Series Residual Correction

作　　者：吴巧玲 焦诗元 邢达 宋晓华[2] WU Qiao-ling;JIAO Shi-yuan;XING Da;SONG Xiao-hua(Huadian Electric Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310030,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华电电力科学研究院有限公司,杭州310030 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《价值工程》2023年第30期103-107,共5页Value Engineering

摘　　要：针对“双碳”目标下电源装机结构难以预测的问题,提出一种基于傅里叶级数残差修正的灰色-马尔科夫电源结构预测方法。首先,考虑到电源装机总量历史数据较少,采用灰色模型进行预测,同时由于灰色模型预测精度受残差影响较大,进一步采用傅里叶级数对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正。其次,鉴于电源装机结构蕴含内部演化规律,提出基于误差优化马尔科夫链的电源装机预测模型。再次,结合“双碳”政策相关影响因素,设计多元情景进行电源装机结构预测分析。基于上述模型,选取2006-2021年历史电力装机结构数据进行计算分析,结果表明:①所提出的傅里叶级数残差修正的灰色-马尔科夫预测模型具有良好的预测精度,可为电源结构预测研究提供方法支撑。②不同情景下的电源结构预测结果可以为“双碳”目标下的电源结构规划提供决策支持。In response to the difficulty in predicting the installed structure of power supply under the"dual carbon"target,this paper proposes a grey Markov power supply structure prediction method based on Fourier series residual correction.Firstly,considering the limited historical data of the total installed capacity of the power supply,a grey model is used for prediction.At the same time,due to the significant impact of residual on the prediction accuracy of the grey model,Fourier series is further used to correct the prediction residual of the grey model.Secondly,considering that the power installation structure contains internal evolution laws,a power installation prediction model based on error optimized Markov chain is proposed.Finally,based on the relevant influencing factors of the"dual carbon"policy,multiple scenarios are designed to predict and analyze the power installation structure.Based on the above model,historical electricity installation structure data from 2006 to 2021 were selected for calculation and analysis.The results show that:①The proposed Fourier series residual correction grey Markov prediction model has good prediction accuracy and can provide methodological support for research on power structure prediction.②The predicted results of power structure in different scenarios can provide decision-making support for power structure planning under the"dual carbon"goal.

关 键 词：电源结构预测 马尔科夫 灰色预测 情景预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]