社会融资规模指标:统计特征与完善方向  

Indicators of Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy:Statistical Characteristics and Improvements

作　　者：汪洋 高智杰[2] 刘腾华 WANG Yang;GAO Zhijie;LIU Tenghua(School of Finance,Jiangxi University of Finance&Economics;School of Finance,Jiangxi Normal University)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学党委 [2]江西师范大学财政金融学院 [3]江西财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2023年第10期42-57,共16页Financial Market Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金哲学社会科学领军人才项目“多重约束下的中国财政政策、货币政策与汇率政策协调配合研究”(22VRC018)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“中央银行的逻辑与现代中央银行制度的建设”(21ZDA045);教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目“农产品“保险+期货”模式的统计精算模型与风险分担机制研究”(20YJA790062);江西省研究生创新基金项目“新常态下社会融资规模指标有效性的研究”(YC2022-s238)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：2008年全球金融危机之后,为规避金融监管,商业银行表外性质的影子银行业务迅速发展。企业的融资渠道大大丰富,但企业融资难、融资贵的问题仍然存在。为全面反映实体经济部门的融资情况,人民银行推出了社会融资规模指标。2017年,原银保监会开展专项整治,规范各类影子银行业务。这在一定意义上影响了社会融资规模的增速。2020年新冠疫情突袭而至后,社会融资规模与广义货币供应量M2的增速仍存在一定差距,这引起学界关注。本文将详细阐述该指标的发展变化,深入分析其统计特征,并探讨该指标进一步完善的方向。After the global financial crisis in 2008,the off-balance-sheet shadow banking business of commercial banks developed rapidly to avoid financial supervision.Many financing channels have been expanded for enterprises,but the problems of dificult and expensive financing still exist.To comprehensively reflect the financing situation of the real economy,the People's Bank of China(PBC)has launched a social financing scale index.In 2017,the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission(CBRC)carried out a special rectification program to regularize various shadow banking businesses.This has affected the growth of social financing.Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020,there has been a certain gap between the aggregate financing to the real economy(AFRE)and M2,which has attracted the attention of many economists.This paper describes the development of the indicator,analyzes its statistical characteristics,and explores the possible direction of future improvement of this index.

关 键 词：社会融资规模 货币供应量 统计原则 统计遗漏 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]