湖北省农产品物流需求预测研究——基于GM(1,N)模型  

Research on Logistics Demand Forecast of Agricultural Products in Hubei Province--Based on GM(1,N)Model

作　　者：乔娜 方青[1] QIAO Na;FANG Qing(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430018,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430018

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2023年第10期66-69,74,共5页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：农产品物流既是保障民生的基础,也关乎现代农业的发展。文中基于湖北省2011-2020年数据,对湖北省农产品物流需求量的相关因子进行分析,采用一阶多变量的GM(1,N)灰色预测模型,构建湖北省农产品物流需求预测指标体系,以灰色关联度计算为依据,选出与湖北省农产品物流需求量相关程度高的相关因子作为预测指标,构建灰色GM(1,6)模型,结果显示预测模型精确度和可信度较高,并根据预测结果提出农产品物流发展相关建议,为湖北省农产品物流业制定规划、提供参考。Agricultural products logistics is the basis of ensuring people's livelihood and is related to the development of modern agriculture.Based on the data from 2011 to 2020 of Hubei province,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the demand of agricultural products logistics in Hubei Province.It adopts the first order multi-variable GM(1,N)gray prediction model to construct the prediction index system of agricultural products logistics demand in Hubei Province.Based on the gray relational analysis,the factors with high correlation with the demand of agricultural products logistics in Hubei province are selected as predictors to construct the grey GM(1,6)model.The results showed that the prediction model had high accuracy and reliability,and the relevant suggestions on the development of agricultural products logistics were put forward to provide references for the planning of agricultural products logistics industry in Hubei Province.

关 键 词：农产品物流需求预测 GM(1 N) 灰色关联度 湖北省 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济]